Wednesday, March 19, 2025

2025 Predictions

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

This week, take 20% off a one-year subscription to the Newsletter by using your PayPal account or major credit card. Get my full set of predictions for all 30 teams, the ongoing 2025 season preview, and much more!

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AL East: Red Sox

AL Central: Twins

AL West: Rangers

AL wild cards: Rays, Mariners, Orioles 

AL MVP: Julio Rodriguez, Mariners
AL Cy Young: Cole Ragans, Royals
AL Rookie of the Year: Kumar Rocker, Rangers


NL East: Braves

NL Central: Cubs

NL West: Dodgers

NL wild cards: Phillies, Mets, Diamondbacks

NL MVP: Kyle Tucker, Cubs
NL Cy Young: Zack Wheeler, Phillies
NL Rookie of the Year: Roki Sasaki, Dodgers

World Series: Dodgers over Rangers in five.


Tuesday, March 18, 2025

Joe Sheehan Newsletter, March 18, 2025 -- "Season Preview 2025: Eating the Whole Hog"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

This week, take 20% off a one-year subscription to the Newsletter by using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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The Joe Sheehan Newsletter
Season Preview 2025: Eating the Whole Hog
March 17, 2024

As we approach Opening Day, I’ve been buried in projections and player comments and injury updates, working out my 2025 predictions for every team. It’s work, but it’s also fun being consumed by a project like this, wanting to get the best read on the upcoming campaign. A set of projections is necessarily outcome-focused, answering the questions of who is good and bad, who will be in or out of the tournament, and in the end, who is the best.

I’ve been thinking a lot about how I follow baseball once the season starts. When I came to the game, just four teams made the playoffs, and any team that did so had had a wildly successful campaign. The other 22, though, didn’t all deem their seasons a failure. We didn’t used to be so postseason-focused. I think that’s changed a lot, and it affects how I follow and cover the game, how we all experience it. There was a time when competing in an exciting playoff race was a successful season, or having a surprising .500 year out of nowhere, or even when a bad team -- say, the 1990 Yankees -- put some interesting young players on the field, even if those players didn’t end up with long careers. The point of the baseball season was the baseball season.

We celebrated so much more of baseball than we do today. Now, 12 teams make the playoffs and missing the postseason is largely cause for disdain. Even teams that make the playoffs can be deemed failures if they don’t advance far enough. The barriers to success are lower than ever, while the barriers to happiness seem higher than ever. We’re accelerating through the season; there will be trade-deadline talk, I guarantee you, before the end of April. We’ll spend July speculating about how trades will affect playoff rosters in October. Teams that fall out of the race early may as well drop into MLS for all we’ll care about them.

I don’t want to do that this year. I describe myself as a fan who enjoys the regular season more than the postseason, which is usually stated in the context of missing true races between good teams. There is more to it than that, though. I just like having baseball around every single day for six months. I like random day games on a Tuesday (hey, Tigers), and the hour leading up the 7 p.m. ET starts, and the way a Saturday can have games from 1 p.m. to midnight. I like Quick Pitch in the morning and Joe Davis at midnight. I like a surprising trade in April, a phenom called up in June, a vet coming off the IL in August.

There’s a great college football podcast called Split Zone Duo, one that is the current iteration of a pod chain dating back a decade with a variety of hosts. The two main ones now are Slate’s Alex Kirshner and CBS Sports’s Richard Johnson. One thing they like to say about their pod is that they “eat the whole hog” by covering everything from teams in the CFP to the ones in CUSA. They cover the games, the coaching carousel, recrui... excuse me, “crootin’”...all of it. They value the whole season and all the teams and all the things that make their game special. They have fun with all of it.

There are baseball writers who are excellent at this. Sam Miller is probably the best right now at noticing something random and making me care about it. Patrick Dubuque at BP has this talent. Davy Andrews at FanGraphs. Meg Rowley on Effectively Wild. I don’t mean swing changes or new pitches or how a manager is making out the lineup card so much as the little things, or even big things, that pop up when we get 2430 games over 186 days. The Cespedes Family BBQ guys have this club in their bag.

I want to do a better job of savoring the games as they are, not as part of the bigger stories. I want to get invested in some Padres/Dodgers matchup in the early going not because of its NL West implications or what early failure might mean to the Padres’ in-season decisions, but because it will be a good ballgame and I like baseball. The same goes for some light day in June when Nationals/Marlins is the only contest at 4 p.m. That’s baseball, too, and there are plenty of reasons to watch. I want to listen to more MLB games on the radio, and dip my toe into the college version a bit, and maybe keep a better eye out for the quirks that Sam and Patrick and Meg are always noticing. 

Forget whether any of this will make it into the Newsletter. Maybe some of it will, I don’t know. What I want, for myself and for you, is to enjoy these games as much as possible. We haven’t had real baseball in so long, and we’re about to get six months of it. It’s so much better than it was back in those 26-team days, too, because we can watch every game in high definition, and read so much more about them, and have access to the kind of information about the players 14-year-old Joe couldn’t have dreamed of. I’d have loved to have known Dave Righetti’s IVB, and Don Mattingly’s barrel rate, and Rickey Henderson’s sprint speed. 

You know, this could be the last untrammeled baseball season for a while. The 2026 campaign is unquestionably going to be played against the backdrop of a coming labor war, one that could cost us part or even all of 2027. Between the pandemic and the lockout and the rules changes, the 2020s have given us a lot of odd seasons, and that’s likely to continue. This one, though, this 2025 season, is on an island, far enough removed from the early part of the decade that the game has stabilized, and far enough ahead of 2027 to allow it to unfold without the cloud of an expiring CBA hanging over it.

This is the moment to appreciate our game, its players, and all the things we love about baseball, as baseball, without needing more meaning than that. There’s plenty of time to sweat the wild-card races and where Vladimir Guerrero Jr. may end up and whether Shohei Ohtani can win a fourth MVP in five years. Those storylines, and more like them, are going to play out. Let’s appreciate everything that happens behind and around them, though. Let’s eat the whole hog.

Friday, March 14, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, March 14, 2025 -- "And Finally, the Giants"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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The Giants didn’t need a $50 million decline phase on the left side of the infield. What they need is to build a homegrown core. Their fate under Posey depends a lot less on free agency than it does on player development, and I have no idea whether Posey can build the kind of infrastructure that the best organizations in baseball have. That’s what will determine his success as a GM. 
 

Thursday, March 13, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, March 13, 2025 -- "Rafael Devers and the Red Sox"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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Better late than never? Earlier today, Ian Browne reported that Devers said he will do “whatever they want me to do.” Devers, who has yet to play this spring, had initially objected to the idea of playing at DH after the Red Sox signed Alex Bregman. Bregman said he would play anywhere, most likely second base, that the Sox wanted him to play. Three weeks into the Grapefruit League, though, Bregman had yet to appear anywhere but the hot corner, making a move across the dirt less practical with each passing day.

Devers’s concession clears up the situation at third and DH, allowing the Sox to put their best defensive team on the field while maximizing Bregman’s value. It does, however, clog up the outfield corners. The hard part is over, but this remains a crowded roster with questions as to how it all fits together.

 
 

Newsletter Excerpt, March 13, 2025 -- "Mailbag"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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I interpreted Rick N.’s mailbag question about excellent/good/acceptable/bad strikeout and walk rates to mean what would be an ideal mix for the watchability of the game. I was very confused by your answer until I figured out that I misinterpreted the question.

Got me thinking though -- what do you think would be an ideal rate of strikeouts and walks for watchability?

-- Matt H.

I don’t think you can realistically get strikeout rates down much lower than 20% without moving the mound back, and I’d take that. I do think the balance in the 2000s — 17% K rate, 7-8% walk rate — is around optimal. I talk about the 1980s a lot, but between the absence of turf and the raw talent of players, you’re never getting back to that kind of sport. If we could have 17% K, 8% BB, .325 BACon, .510 SLGcon, 3% HR rate, we’d be around the most watchable version of the game.

--J.

 
 
 

Monday, March 10, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, March 11, 2025 --"Running Out of Header Ideas...Phillies and Orioles"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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Once again, the Phillies show remarkable year-over-year stability. Their top 11 players by playing time all return, with 93% of last year’s plate appearances still with the Phillies. In fact, eight of the 12 players who batted in the 2022 World Series for the Phillies are still around. John Middleton made some loud noises in November, but in the end, he brought back the team that won 95 games even after its disappointing exit. This team, though, is one of the oldest in the sport, and a window that opened in ’22 is slowly closing.