Newsletter Excerpt, November 27, 2019 -- "Jacoby Ellsbury and Aaron Judge"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

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"We laugh at Ellsbury for having the gall to get paid what the market would bear, but just accept that Judge, a superstar at the core of the Yankees’ and MLB’s marketing efforts, makes 5% of his market value year after year.

"Ellsbury and Judge are two sides of the same coin, each part of a system designed two generations ago. Last week, NBC Sports reported that Rob Manfred said, 'maybe Marvin Miller’s economic system doesn’t work any more.' It read as a threat, but Manfred was more right than wrong."

My Hall Ballot

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

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"If I had a ballot, I would vote for these nine players:

"Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Derek Jeter
Andy Pettitte
Manny Ramirez
Scott Rolen
Curt Schilling
Sammy Sosa
Larry Walker

"That’s seven holdovers from last year, plus Derek Jeter, newly eligible.

[...]

"As with Martinez, however, the recent induction of Trevor Hoffman puts Walker’s 'low' PA total in context. Hoffman faced 4,388 batters in his career, and even giving him some leverage credit doesn’t make up nearly 4,000 PAs. If we’re going to put low-volume relievers in, then the standard for hitters, especially hitters who were Hall of Famers on a rate basis, has to move accordingly. The easy election of Vladimir Guerrero, a lesser player and a contemporary of Walker’s, is a factor in this choice as well. I waited a long time to call Walker a Hall of Famer, as I did with Martinez, but this year I move him over the line."

Newsletter Excerpt, November 22, 2019 -- "Yasmani Grandal and the White Sox"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

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"With that in mind, his contract, four years for $73 million, seems to undervalue his skills. Even if you zero out framing, Grandal is a switch-hitting high-OBP catcher who has been durable and is worth two to three wins a season. Grandal has never been a below-average hitter in the majors. He’ll play next year at 31, and even if you project some decline from his 2018-19 peak, he represents an enormous upgrade for the White Sox in every facet of the game. He’s a perfect fit for a team that needed OBP and some lefty balance."

Newsletter Excerpt, November 19, 2019 -- "Rebuilding the Minors"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"It seems an unassailable point that MLB teams don’t need all of the minor-league teams and all of the minor-league players that they are currently supporting. Under the current proposal, the low-A and short-season levels would be eliminated, the draft would be shortened to 20-25 rounds and pushed into the summer, and teams would be restricted to 150-200 minor leaguers, as opposed to the uncapped number today. All of these changes fit the way players are developed in the early 21st century."

Newsletter Excerpt, November 18, 2019 -- "The Astros' Edge?"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"For a larger sample, let’s look at 3-1. Eighty percent of 3-1 pitches are fastballs, and a bit less than half are two-seamers. Batters hit .363 with a .713 SLG. The more confidence you have in what’s coming, the more confident you can be in your swing. Remember, too, that many pitchers throw just one variety of fastball, so at the individual level, just knowing “fastball or not” is a powerful bit of information. Think of all the two-pitch relievers in the modern game. Now eliminate the coin flip when facing them."

The Hot Stove League's Most Interesting Teams, 1-30

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

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From today's Newsletter. For comments on all 30 teams, subscribe today!

1. Red Sox
2. Cubs
3. White Sox
4. Dodgers
5. Reds
6. Angels
7. Padres
8. Phillies
9. Nationals
10. Indians

11. Astros
12. Mets
13. Yankees
14. Braves
15. Twins
16. Brewers
17. Cardinals
18. Blue Jays
19. Athletics
20. Rockies

21. Rays
22. Rangers
23. Giants
24. Diamondbacks
25. Pirates
26. Mariners
27. Marlins
28. Tigers
29. Royals
30. Orioles

Newsletter Excerpt, November 14, 2019 -- "Random Player Comments"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

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"As someone who believe Torres should be left alone to play shortstop, I approve of the Yankees not making the qualifying offer to Gregorius. It’s a boon for Didi as well, who would be the kind of tweener free agent most likely to be hurt by QO compensation. There are more than a few good places he could land on some kind of 2/20 deal -- Milwaukee, Cincinnati -- and failing that, he’d be one of the best players on the league’s bad teams. His days as a three-win player are probably over, though."

Newsletter Excerpt, November 13, 2019 -- "Signs"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

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"The only person you could plausibly target here is A.J. Hinch. Hinch was in the dugout. It is highly unlikely that he would not have known what was going on. It is reasonable to hold a manager responsible for his player’s actions. Hinch, a team and thus an MLB employee, may be in the worst spot here, forced to choose between protecting his players or losing his clubhouse."

Newsletter Excerpt, November 12, 2019 -- "The Bill James Handbook"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"The back of the book is, as always, a treasure. Park effects, baserunning data, manager charts, leaderboards, projections. I’m writing this on Tuesday afternoon, and I find myself wanting to get this Newsletter done so I can dig into the book for more Newsletter ideas. The leaderboards alone, running from your basic baseball card stats to esoteric ones, will keep you occupied for a day. (Longest Average Home Run, AL, is a hoot.) In all of MLB, there were just 14 120-pitch starts last year. Why, Nolan Ryan alone had 14 120-pitch starts in June of 1976."

Newsletter Excerpt, November 9, 2019 -- "Mookie Betts"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"It’s funny...we’re having this conversation in the run-up to the 100-year anniversary of the trade that defined this franchise for most of its history. On December 26, 1919, Sox owner Harry Frazee sold Babe Ruth to the Yankees for $100,000, largely for non-baseball reasons. That transaction changed the history of the two franchises, the history of baseball, in a small way the history of America.

"A century later, the Red Sox are in almost the exact same spot, plus or minus a couple billion dollars. Let’s hope they don’t make the same mistake twice. "

Newsletter Excerpt, November 7, 2019 -- "Calling Balls and Strikes"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

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"What we know without a doubt, though, is that the system is going to call the pitch based on where it is when it crosses the plate. It’s not going to be influenced by what the catcher does after the fact. For that reason alone, the system is better than human umpires out of the box. For many, the measurement of what we call 'pitch framing' quantified the importance of catchers. For me, it quantified the inability of human umpires to do their job. Those numbers, which have driven the careers of many people on and off the field, should not exist in a fair game. The batter doesn’t get the information of 'framing' to decide whether to swing or to take. Batters have been woefully underrepresented in this conversation."

Newsletter Excerpt, November 5, 2019 -- "Coda"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"The World Series, as you know, was clinched by the road team, the seventh game of seven won by the visitors. Looking back, that was the theme of the month; just three of nine “rounds,” counting the wild card games as such, were clinched at home: the Nationals in the Coin Flip Round, and the Astros in the Division Series and ALCS. Home teams went just 17-20 in the playoffs all told, 5-12 from the LCS round on. It was an October during which we mostly watched teams celebrate on the field while the crowd walked glumly towards the exits.

"I can’t quantify this, but I am certain that this contributed to how this postseason felt. Sports are theatre, dramatic action set against the background of a crowd gleefully cheering its heroes. We rarely had that this month, and almost not at all in the World Series -- Nationals fans who attended the three middle games in D.C. had nothing to cheer for. There was a strange, muted energy to the Series, and it was due to the absence of home wins."