Newsletter Excerpt, September 30, 2020 -- "NL Playoff Field"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

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"The greater concern is probably the bullpen, which simply doesn’t have a shutdown guy. At various times in recent years, Kenley Jansen and Blake Treinen have been the best relievers in baseball. Neither is in 2020. For any given inning, one of them or Jake McGee or Brusdar Graterol can look dominant, but there’s no one in this pen who will make a Dodger fan breathe easy upon entry. The Dodgers have more good pitchers than any team in baseball -- ten with ERAs below 3.00 in at least ten innings, tying the Braves -- but in a short series, you’d rather have three scary monsters than a dozen efficient ones."

Newsletter Excerpt, September 29, 2020 -- "AL Playoff Field"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

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"One of the things I want to watch for this week is how many pitchers these teams use. In a best-of-three over three days, you shouldn’t really be using more than seven pitchers. Choose your three best starters, let them pitch until you need to take them out, and then turn the game over to your best relievers. AL teams have a day off prior and three days off after their series, and most didn’t use any high-leverage relievers on Sunday. In a best-of-three, there are very few low-leverage innings; you’d need to be playing out a blowout in the final couple of frames to justify using the bottom of your staff. I know some of these teams will carry 12, 13, maybe 14 pitchers, and maybe that’s as much because they can’t find hitters, but it’s nonsensical. A best-of-three with this scheduling demands only the best pitchers be used."

Newsletter Excerpt, September 28, 2020 -- "The End of Baseball Exceptionalism"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

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"That shift ramped up the intensity of the playoffs. The postseason, which should build slowly to the World Series, became a grind from the start. We saw Division Series games routinely running far past three hours, with tactics once reserved for big spots, like starters coming out of the bullpen, now appearing in October’s first days. As baseball’s gameplay changed, the effects were felt in the playoffs. The absence of lesser starting pitchers in October once made the games run cleaner; now, with even the best starting pitchers held to 100 pitches, kept from facing their opponents a third time -- the win-maximizing decision, to be sure -- even Division Series games became a grind. There was no longer a buildup, just one high note held for five weeks. I’d imagine that works for fans of the team that wins, and even for many neutrals who love baseball. I think all it really does is teach people to check in halfway through the semis to see how it all ends."

Newsletter Excerpt, September 26, 2020 -- "Three Tickets Punched"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

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"New York Mets (26-31, 11th in NL). No, really. With last night’s rainout and the way the results fell, the Mets are alive, playing .456 baseball, for a playoff spot with two days left in the season. They have to win their final three games over the Nationals. They need the Phillies to lose their final two games. (This is critical, as the Mets lose all ties to the Phillies.) They need the Giants to lose their final two games. They need the Brewers to lose at least once. This would create a two-way or a three-way tie at 29-31 that the Mets would win on intradivisional record."

Newsletter Excerpt, September 25, 2020 -- "What I'm Watching"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

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"The Brewers, with last night’s loss, have dropped three of four this week and have very little room for error. One loss today will put them up against the wall, two could put them under it. They did pound Flaherty -- nine runs in three innings -- the last time they saw him, a fairly shocking result. If their season ends this weekend, they can point to a series of offseason moves -- trading for Omar Narvaez, signing Josh Lindblom, Justin Smoak, and Eric Sogard -- that dragged them away from the playoff hunt. A team with a core of Christian Yelich, Keston Hiura, Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Josh Hader shouldn’t need to rebuild, though. David Stearns has got to fill in the roster behind those five better than he did this year."

 

Newsletter Excerpt, September 24, 2020 -- "Quick Update"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

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"It is funny that while the AL races have been hurt by this year’s playoff expansion, the NL ones look much the same as they would have had the rules not been changed. The NL West and NL East have been decided. The first wild card will be the Padres. The Cubs have a 2 1/2-game lead in the NL Central, two in the loss column. The primary difference is that instead of six teams battling for one wild-card slot and the strong possibility of a multi-team tie at 30-30 for it -- which would have been amazing -- it’s instead six teams for four spots.

"I take it back, the NL races were hurt by this year’s playoff expansion. Man, this would have been a wild weekend if just one spot were in play!"

Newsletter Excerpt, September 23, 2020 -- "Nat Dead Yet"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

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"The Washington Nationals were 20-32 when I wrote that column, the latter number the reason they were left out. I could foresee a 29-31 team in the playoffs, but not a 28-32 one. Two days later, after three wins over the Phillies, the Nats are 23-32, and they at least demand an exploration of the idea."

Newsletter Excerpt, September 22, 2020 -- "One Great Baseball Play"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

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"As with the Simmons play, it showed off so many aspects of playing shortstop. Swanson had to realize the bag was open and that Harrison was a threat to take it. He initially ran across the infield forward, then needed to switch it up and run sideways, signaling Freeman to make the throw. In the MLB.com highlights, this is tagged as “Freddie Freeman turns sweet DP,” and that’s earned. Freeman threw an out route that hit Swanson in stride and set up the spin tag that capped the play. The play, though, was made by Swanson, seeing the open base, getting to it, and slapping a game-saving tag on Harrison."

 

Newsletter Excerpt, September 21, 2020 -- "Seven More Days"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

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"This is last year’s Cardinals team all over again. They don’t really do anything but play good defense, and that might be enough. Their pitching staff has the sixth-highest walk rate in baseball, and only the Jays are walking more batters among contenders. Their offensive identity is, “What, we’re up again?” They’re 17-for-26 stealing bases, which is much worse than 0-for-0. I want to talk myself into a bullpen bolstered by Genesis Cabrera and Alex Reyes, but the two have walked about 17% of the batters they’ve faced, which even when you’re winning takes years off your life."

Newsletter Excerpt, September 20, 2020 -- "I Was Wrong"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

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"What we know, though, is that after those earliest days, MLB pulled this off. It needed to chip away at some of the things we think of as “baseball” to do so, and it needed a commitment from the players to, frankly, pass on a lot of the fun things about being major-league players for a while. We had a season, and we’ll have these expanded playoffs and a World Series, and whether it’s Yankees/Dodgers or Marlins/Blue Jays, it will represent the efforts of thousands of people over four months. MLB’s plan worked."

Newsletter Excerpt, September 18, 2020 -- "The Playoff-Bound White Sox"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

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"Robert’s emergence has helped the White Sox become one of the best defensive teams in baseball, a key to their season so far. Only the Cardinals and Dodgers have a larger gap between their ERA and their FIP, indicating teams whose pitchers are getting, through some mix of luck and defense, better results than expected. During their rebuild, the Sox saw their Defensive Efficiency drop from third in MLB in 2017 to 21st last year. Now, no one is tracking DER in 2020, but we can use BABIP as a loose proxy; the Sox have jumped from 19th in BABIP allowed, .303, to fourth (.275)."

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, September 15, 2020 -- "The Wrong Choice"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

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"Craig Counsell doesn’t have to turn Josh Hader into 1986 Mark Eichhorn. On September 14, though, with the Brewers fighting for their season, with them holding a one-run lead in the last inning, with Hader having thrown 14 2/3 innings in 53 days, with the middle of the other team’s lineup up, he has to be able to call on the most dominant reliever we’ve ever seen to get three outs, even if he’d made the same request three hours prior."

Newsletter Excerpt, September 14, 2020 -- "Around the League"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

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"It’s fair to not assign as much meaning to these last two weeks as we might to this type of finish in another year. However, if you put your blinders on and just enjoy it for what it is, the race for the NL playoffs should be entertaining, if not necessarily good. Nearly every day will feature multiple games between teams in this group, ones scrambling for 29 wins and the chance to assemble a two-game winning streak at the right time."

Newsletter Excerpt, September 10, 2020 -- "Thinking Inside the Box, 29-9 Edition"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

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"We can know that RBIs aren’t the best measure of a player while still staring in awe at a '9' in that column. There have been just 41 times in recorded baseball history that a player has driven in at least nine runs a game -- about once every three years or so. Duvall is the first since Mark Reynolds drove in ten for the Nationals a bit more than two seasons ago. He’s the second Brave to do so, tying Tony Cloninger’s team record set in the famous two-slam game in 1966."

Newsletter Excerpt, September 9, 2020 -- "The Rays"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

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"The Rays have lost nearly an entire bullpen -- Jose Alvarado, Chaz Roe, Jalen Beeks, Oliver Drake, and Andrew Kittredge -- but have replenished the group on the fly with free talent pickups like John Curtiss (16/2 K/BB in 15 2/3 innings, free agent), Ryan Thompson (3.98 ERA in 18 appearances, Rule 5 pick), and Pete Fairbanks (2.41 ERA in 19 appearances, minor trade addition)."

 

Newsletter Excerpt, September 8, 2020 -- "September Worn"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

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"The Astros and Yankees have both seen injuries chip away at their short-season upside, and in recent days, have had some ugly bullpen collapses shake up the AL postseason standings. With the new postseason format, though, their true chances at a championship have barely moved at all. They’re both overwhelming favorites to make the playoffs, and once there will face the same daunting best-ofs math that all 16 teams will face. In their favor is that over the next few weeks, some of the best players in baseball -- and lesser, but still good ones -- will be returning to their regular roles in Houston and the Bronx."

Newsletter Excerpt, September 5, 2002 -- "The White-Hot Dodgers"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

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"I’ve said a few times that the 2020 Dodgers might be the best team ever, and that the curtailed season will prevent us from seeing that idea come to fruition. All they can do is play the games they’re allowed to play, however, and their 30-10 start has put them in range of some of the best 60-game stretches in baseball history."

 

Newsletter Excerpt, September 3, 2020 -- "Tom Seaver, 1944-2020"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

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"There are some baseball greats on this list, but they played a different version of the sport than did Tom Terrific. Cy Young and Kid Nichols pitched the earliest parts of their careers from a distance of 50 feet to the plate. Only Lefty Grove pitched most of his career after the game changed to bring more power in after 1919. Seaver is clearly the best pitcher born in the 20th century -- taking that title from Warren Spahn along the way --  and given what we know about the evolution of baseball, that made him comfortably the best pitcher who had ever lived as of the 1980s."

 

Newsletter Excerpt, September 1, 2020 -- "The Trades"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

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"The Indians, whether out of frugality or pique, traded a #2 starter with #1 upside for a grab bag of guys who might be three-win players if things go well. It’s not that there was no case for trading Clevinger; it’s that what they got in return simply isn’t good enough."