Sunday, July 30, 2023

Newsletter Excerpt, July 28, 2023 -- "Mailbag (Trade Deadline's Version)"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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Given the lack of starters/pitching on the trade market, maybe the Giants can get Sean Manaea and/or Ross Stripling off the books--both are signed for another season at $12.5 million each. Farhan Zaidi has had up till now good success buying these types of players, but these sure haven't worked out.

Assuming the return is a PTBNL or a non-prospect prospect, is this a sound strategy? Would anyone trade for them with the hope of getting them back to where they were performance-wise last year?  

-- Bryan D.

I understand this thinking as a fan, though I would separate the two pitchers. Stripling has never been that far above an up-and-down guy, and full credit to his agent for turning the second good season of his career into $25 million guaranteed over two years. I think Stripling has negative trade value, even in a rough market for pitching. 

Manaea, though, has a 27% strikeout rate and a 3.98 FIP (albeit a 4.98 xERA per Statcast). The hype on him this spring set expectations a bit high -- I was absolutely part of that problem -- but he’s been an asset for a team that has had to patch together the rotation for much of the season. He’s picked up nearly three ticks on his fastball this year, and I would hate to end up paying a team to pitch him against me when it comes together. If I hear this weekend Manaea has been traded to the Guardians or something, I’m all in on him. 

Realistically, I think it’s hard to trade either. Stripling isn’t good, Manaea is valuable to this roster, and both come with good salaries in 2024. 

--J.