Newsletter Excerpt, February 29, 2024 -- "The New Rules, Reprised: Basestealing"

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We can see the impact of these changes in one small table:

         SB    CS  
2022   2486   811
2023   3503   866

Diff  +1017   +55

The new rules helped add more than a thousand steals at a 96% success rate. Those aren’t really stolen bases, those are buy-one-get-one-free bases. 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, February 27, 2024 -- "The New Rules, Reprised: The Pitch Clock"

 

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Why did it work? I was wrong about the players. I expected far more resistance from the players to the new rule set, to being rushed, and it never happened. Oh, there were occasional complaints, but by and large, the players, and especially the pitchers, just...played faster. Why they couldn’t have done it without the clock remains a mystery, but there is little question that putting them on the clock sped them up in a way that shaved close to a half-hour off game times.

 

The pitch clock worked. The games were shorter and fans were happy about it. The players accepted the change, and the ones who objected were...handled. I was wrong. 

Newsletter Excerpt, February 26, 2024 -- "The New Rules, Reprised: Defensive Positioning"

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The shift is an effect, not a cause. The cause is pitchers are witches, and everything about the modern game begins with that point. Mandating that teams play bad defense because you don’t want to address the pitcher issue is an embarrassment to the game’s leadership and a disservice to the fans.

 

Newsletter Excerpt, February 25, 2024 -- "Cody Bellinger Signs"

 

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Just noodling on one potential lineup...

Ian Happ LF
Christopher Morel DH
Cody Bellinger CF
Seiya Suzuki RF
Michael Busch 1B
Dansby Swanson SS
Nico Hoerner 2B
Yan Gomes C
Nick Madrigal 3B


That puts Tauchman on the bench, and likely PCA and Davis in Triple-A. You can season to taste, but that looks like the nine men who will start for the Cubs on Opening Day. Throw in the homegrown pitching depth that will lengthen the staff, and the Cubs look like the NL Central favorite.

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, February 22, 2024 -- "Broken Senga Piece"

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"The uncertainty as to when Senga might return makes it hard to predict exactly what the cost to the Mets will be. Senga is projected as a three-win contributor by Steamer and ZiPS, a little less than that by PECOTA. If he is healthy in three weeks and on the CitiField mound in May, he’ll retain most of those projections. The specific injury, though, makes it hard to be optimistic. Kyle Wright suffered a capsule injury and went from winning 21 games to pretty much losing two years of his career. Brandon Woodruff will miss all of 2024 following anterior capsule surgery."

 

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, February 21, 2024 -- "Most Interesting Camps"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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"It’s a fascinating camp beyond the frustration over their inaction. The Red Sox have some very exciting outfield prospects in Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela. Were Alex Cora to play those two with Jarren Duran, the Sox would have one of the best defensive outfields in baseball. Tyler O’Neill complicates that alignment, of course. In the infield, Trevor Story might be playing for his career after two seasons lost to injury. Vaughn Grissom, acquired for Chris Sale, takes over at second base. Neither member of that keystone combination is guaranteed to be a viable option; they combined for 0.1 bWAR last year."

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, February 20, 2024 -- "Catching Up"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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After two weeks of position-player rankings in the Newsletter that didn't lend themselves to excerpts, we're back with a more conventional Newsletter, and excerpt, today.

To get once-a-week free editions of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, email freesheehannewsletter@gmail.com.

 

Today's excerpt:

 

"Rendon’s remarks made him baseball’s main character for the day, which made me think about the conundrum players face when talking to the media. We want them to be honest, but perhaps not too honest. There are 1200 players on 40-man rosters, and I guarantee you Rendon isn’t the only one who sees playing baseball as a job and not much more. Many players, most even, do love the game, but baseball is no different than any other career in that sometimes, you end up doing it because it’s what you’re good at and it’s where you can make the most money."

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, February 6, 2024 -- "Royal Witt Cheddar"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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"Even if you just consider it a 7/148 contract, it’s a very good one for the team. They get the meat of Witt’s career, his next seven seasons through age 30, for less than market value. They get to hold a press conference this week and point to Witt and say, 'Royals fans, you can get invested in this guy. Buy the jerseys. Come to the park. Tell your kids. (p.s. Vote to give us money.)' They’ve bought a level of credibility that all the Hunter Renfroes and Adam Fraziers weren’t going to provide. "

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, February 4, 2024 -- "The White Sox"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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"In four decades, Reinsdorf has rarely invested in the team. They did run some top-five payrolls in the wake of the 2005 title, but over the last decade, the White Sox have had more bottom-ten payrolls (four) than top-ten (one). Cot’s has them 23rd for 2024, and more than 10% of that money is going to Andrew Benintendi on what is both a) an overpay and 2) the biggest free-agent deal in franchise history. Reinsdorf’s unwillingness to act like the steward of a $2 billion asset that received a large public subsidy, and instead run his team like the Middle-Class Pirates, is the biggest reason the Sox are in this mess."

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, February 2, 2024 -- "Brewers/Orioles Trade"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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"The era of big tanking is over, mostly because MLB reduced the benefits of being very bad. What we’re seeing now, though, is something harder to get a grip on, something more insidious. Good teams, teams with reasonable chances to win a division, are valuing future wins more than present wins. The Brewers didn’t have to trade Corbin Burnes. They did anyway."