Monday, September 30, 2024

Newsletter Excerpt, September 30, 2024 -- "Randoms"

 

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So there isn’t going to be a forfeit, much less two of them. The team that loses the first game is going to be likely to win the second game for reasons that aren’t specific to this situation, but show up in end-of-season scenarios and doubleheaders all the time. Remember that these mixed-motivation spots also applied Saturday, and the Mets and Diamondbacks both lost to the Brewers and Padres. The Braves, with everything to play for Sunday, lost to the Royals’ Game 162 squad. 
 

Saturday, September 28, 2024

Newsletter Excerpt, September 28, 2024 -- "Clarity"

 

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-- The Tigers did the thing. Sellers at the trade deadline, under .500 as recently as August 25, out of playoff position as recently as last Sunday morning, the Detroit Tigers are going to the postseason. They won their sixth in a row, 4-1 over the White Sox, to clinch their first trip to October since 2014. It was their 15th win in 18 games, capping a 31-11 run stretching to mid-August. We haven’t had a baseball story like this in a long time, maybe since the 2007 Rockies.

The Tigers have lit up this September with youth and defense and pitching. Six of their nine starters last night are no older than 24. They’ve allowed just 65 runs this month, fewer than any team other than the Padres. Once again, A.J. Hinch assembled 27 outs from a group of unheralded pitchers, not a single one making even $800,000 this year.
 
 

Friday, September 27, 2024

Newsletter Excerpt, September 27, 2024 -- "The Minnesota Tlosses"

 

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No, this collapse is about the lineup. The Twins have more than enough good hitters, but they don’t stay on the field. This year, key absences and injury-related slumps happened at the same time that many of the support players hit a wall. Parallel to that, two rotation spots went kablooey (as did, occasionally, Lopez and Ober), increasing the need for runs at the exact time the hitters stopped providing them.

Thursday, September 26, 2024

Newsletter Excerpt, September 26, 2024 -- "The Coliseum"

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Like many of you, I have wonderful memories of watching baseball at the Coliseum. I didn’t go often, but my days and nights there produced some of my favorite ballpark stories. In 1992, I road-tripped up from USC with some other members of the street-hockey crowd for a day game pre-Mt. Davis. It was a gorgeous Saturday afternoon, and we sat out in left field and watched the A’s ruin Mike Fetters’s Strat card and eliminate the Brewers from AL East contention. I watched a couple of Hall of Famers hit homers, saw Rickey and Hendu patrol the outfield, caught some of Paul Molitor’s last moments as a Brewer. The Coliseum was just the fifth park I’d ever been to, and it felt like an adventure.
 
 

 

Wednesday, September 25, 2024

Newsletter Excerpt, September 25, 2024 -- "Today's Key Games"

 

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6:40 ET: Rays (Littell) at Tigers (Montero)

Tarik Skubal pretty much ended the AL Cy Young conversation with seven shutout innings yesterday in the biggest game of his life. The Tigers, 28-11 since August 11, are now a favorite to grab an AL wild-card berth. They’re tied with the Royals for the second slot, two up on the Twins and 2 1/2 up on the Mariners. Detroit loses tiebreakers to the first two of those, though, so they’re not locked in yet. Their trump card is three games this weekend against the White Sox. They might not allow ten runs the rest of the season.
 
 

Tuesday, September 24, 2024

Newsletter Excerpt, September 24, 2024 -- "Shotember"

 

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In six seasons with the Angels, Ohtani had two (2) plate appearances in the second half that rank among his top 200 by cLI, both last season, one on July 16, one on August 4. His most important September PA, by this measure, comes out at .63 on a scale where 1 is average. It was also in 2020, which doesn’t count. Outside of 2020 and its 60-game season, Shohei Ohtani had never had a single September plate appearance with a cLI above zero. This September, all but three of his PAs have had some positive cLI, and 21 have been high-leverage by this measure.

Monday, September 23, 2024

Newsletter Excerpt, September 23, 2024 -- "120 and Counting"

 

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Sometime this week, the 2024 version of the White Sox will lose their 121st game, a figure no team has reached since the turn of the twentieth century. The 1962 Mets, the only team since 1899 to lose 120 games, will be surpassed not by an expansion team like they were, but a team that was popping champagne just three seasons prior. It’s a collapse with few parallels in baseball history, and none where owner intent -- the 1910s A’s, the 2000s Marlins -- wasn’t part of the equation. 
 
 

Sunday, September 22, 2024

Newsletter Excerpt, September 22, 2024 -- "Royals, Blue"

 

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As bad as the Royals have played over the last week, I still think they’re OK. All season long, when it seemed like the wheels were going to fall off, the Royals would put Lugo or Cole Ragans on the mound, get a great start, and stay on the road. That’s what they’ll do today in their final home game, with Lugo going up against the Giants, who themselves start Blake Snell. Get past today, and the Royals go to D.C. for three games with the Nationals, and then to Atlanta to face a Braves team that might be eliminated by then.
 
 

Friday, September 20, 2024

Thinking Inside the Box, September 20, 2024

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"Thinking Inside the Box" is an occasional Newsletter feature that pulls topics from a reading of the box scores. The lines in fixed-width are the player's box score line for the game in question.

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Dodgers 20, Marlins 4

                  AB  R  H  BI
Ohtani DH          6  4  6  10 3 HR

“Thinking Inside the Box” pays tribute to a time when newspaper box scores were a primary connection to the world of baseball. I’d devour them, sometimes in two papers (we were a tabloid family, the Daily News and the Post) a day, learning who the stars were on teams that were largely rumors to me. I’d clip them and bring them to Wiffle ball games to play as the Cardinals or Angels or Astros...”now batting, Denny Walling!”

Come to baseball this way, and you learn to appreciate box score lines the same way you do a sliding catch or a double into the gap. They have aesthetics, they have artistic qualities, they have meaning beyond the numbers.

Box score lines don’t reduce a player’s performance to numbers, they illustrate the player’s performance with numbers. 6 4 6 10 is something you sit with quietly, a baseball Renoir or Rembrandt, created by a genius not for you to understand, but to appreciate, to admire, to bask in. It’s unique; we’d seen 6 3 6 12 and 6 4 5 10 and 6 5 6 10, but across the sweep of recorded baseball history, never a 6 4 6 10. Ohtani’s box score line Thursday is his “Girl With a Pearl Earring,” his “Guernica,” his “Dogs Playing Poker.”


HR: Ohtani 3 (51)

Then again, numbers fall short sometimes. In the ninth inning of yesterday’s game, with the Marlins just trying to get things over with, they let infielder Vidal Brujan pitch to Ohtani. It wasn’t a good matchup for Brujan, who fell behind Ohtani 2-0 while pumping 74. Brujan dialed it back to 68, middle-up, and Ohtani opened both a can of whoop-ass and the 51/51 Club all at once with a 440-foot homer. The last time anything like that homer was launched in South Florida, Boeing stranded two people in space.


SB: Ohtani 2 (51)

Let it be noted that the 50/50 Club never technically existed. Ohtani stole his 50th base, third base, on the front end of a double steal in the first inning, then his 51st, second base, an inning later. The 48/51 Club established, Ohtani set about creating new spaces with his homers in the sixth, eighth, and ninth, and he came a few Dodger baserunners short of getting a chance at christening the 52/51 Club before leaving town.

In addition to everything else he’s doing, Ohtani is posting one of the most efficient volume basestealing seasons of all time.

“I am an exceptional thief!” (Best SB% in a 50-steal season)

                              SB   CS    SB%
Max Carey        PIT   1922   51    2   96.2
Jacoby Ellsbury  BOS   2013   52    4   92.9
Shohei Ohtani    LAD   2024   51    4   92.7
Corbin Carroll   ARI   2023   54    5   91.5
Jerry Mumphrey   SDP   1980   52    5   91.2


TB: Ohtani 17

Seven years into his career, Ohtani is still carving out new space in the record books. Not getting that final AB yesterday left him short of the single-game record for total bases, 19, held by another lefty-hitting Dodger, Shawn Green. Ohtani’s 17 leaves him in a four-way tie for fourth with legends like Mike Schmidt, Gil Hodges, and...Scooter Gennett. Ohtani was posting numbers so quickly that my eighth-inning observation that he was the first player to ever have two homers, two doubles, and two steals in a single game was quickly mooted by his becoming the only player to have three homers and two steals in a single game.

When the dust settled, OptaSTATS had the final word.

Was it the greatest game ever played? I don’t care. It was a fairly meaningless getaway-day contest against a team that’s quit and had a shortstop on the mound in the ninth inning. You can make a case that Ohtani himself has had greater games, days on which he struck out ten men while hitting two homers, or threw seven shutout innings and then helped key the game-winning rally in the eighth. It may not have been his greatest game at LoanDepot Park.

6 4 6 10 exists on a plane apart from our measurement tools, something not to be graded or ranked, but to be stared at in a quiet room from six feet away, appreciated like a sculpture or photograph or, yes, a painting. It’s baseball art, crafted by the greatest artist of his time.

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Today’s key games:

7:05 ET: Tigers (TBD, probably opener/Brant Hurter) at Orioles (Burnes)

7:10 ET: Twins (Festa) at Red Sox (Fitts)

7:10 ET: Phillies (Sanchez) at Mets (Peterson)

8:10 ET: Diamondbacks (Gallen) at Brewers (Rea)

 
 
 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, September 20, 2024 -- "The Stalled Birds"

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Due to injuries, trades, and some players stalling out, this just isn’t the group of Orioles we were so excited about three months ago. Mike Eiias and his staff didn’t make a big move at the trade deadline, and of the smaller ones, only adding Zach Eflin was a win. Eflin has been a rock in the rotation, averaging more than six innings a start with a 3.42 FIP. Dominguez, Soto, Eloy Jimenez, and Trevor Rogers have combined to be a net negative, with the Rogers trade turning out exactly as badly as analysts projected.


 

Tuesday, September 17, 2024

Newsletter Excerpt, September 17, 2024 -- "The Flippin' AL Central"

 

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At the other end of the spectrum, Manzardo’s blast extended a disastrous run for what was once one of the strongest pens in the game. Twins relievers had a 3.51 ERA (eighth) and a 3.61 FIP (sixth) in the first half. Those figures are 5.23 (29th) and 3.87 (15th) since the break. Twins relievers have allowed eight homers in 56 1/3 innings in September. Jax and Jhoan Duran, their max-leverage guys, have allowed nine runs in 11 2/3 innings. Injuries have taken big pieces out of the Twins’ lineup and rotation, and the bullpen is now falling apart.

 

Monday, September 16, 2024

Newsletter Excerpt, September 16, 2024 -- "Reset"

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American League West

                    Div       M#
Astros     81-68     --       9*       
Mariners   77-73    4.5     


The Mariners were walked off in Oakland on September 2 and 3, slipping under .500 and 6 1/2 back of the Astros. They’ve won seven of ten since then to right the ship and at least keep contact in advance of their three-game series in Houston next week. If they can go into that one no worse than four games out, a sweep makes the final weekend interesting. The Astros have been all over the place lately -- sweep the Royals, get swept by the Reds, etc. -- and they can’t seem to get their best players all on the field at once. They’ll probably be waiting in the ALCS again.

Astros: 3 @ SDP, 4 vs. LAA, 3 vs. SEA, 3 @ CLE
Mariners: 3 vs. NYY, 3 @ TEX, 3 @ HOU, 3 vs. OAK

The Mariners have the tiebreaker (6-4) over the Astros, and, as with the Orioles and Yankees in the AL East, there is no scenario in which they tie for the division title without holding the tiebreaker. 
 
 

 

Saturday, September 14, 2024

Newsletter Excerpt, September 14, 2024 -- "Thinking Inside the Box"

 

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Rockies 9, Cubs 5

                  AB  R  H  BI
Goodman C          4  2  3   7 2HR


Alvarez homered on 0-1, Judge on 2-0, De La Cruz on the first pitch. These things happen.

The Cubs’ season may have ended on an 0-2 slider, and you just can’t do that.

With the game tied at five, Craig Counsell called on Drew Smyly to start the eighth in Denver, and continuing a theme, Smyly made things worse by allowing two singles and a walk to the first three hitters he faced. After Smyly struck out Nolan Jones, Counsell lifted him to get the right/right matchup with Nate Pearson against Hunter Goodman. Goodman had homered off Javier Assad earlier in the game, but for the most part he’s been gettable for right-handed pitchers: coming into the game, he had 30 strikeouts and just 17 hits against righties this year That’s consistent with his minor-league work as a low-OBP slugger.

Pearson got ahead of Goodman with two sliders, to no surprise. Goodman had been worked by sliders from righties in his MLB career, batting under .121 with a .151 SLG and a 41% whiff rate. All Pearson had to do was finish the job; after falling down 0-2 in the majors, Goodman had a .136 AVG, with nine hits against 39 strikeouts.

Pearson didn’t finish the job. He left a cement-mixer of a slider up and over the plate, and Goodman crushed it. The chance that Goodman would do anything but strike out, given the count, Pearson’s handedness, and his repertoire, were tiny. That’s how bad the slider was.

There are any number of reasons why the Cubs will fall short of my outsized expectations for them this year. One will be the bullpen, and perhaps more specifically, why a tied game in the eighth inning of a September must-win...they’re all must-win now...game was handed over to Drew Smyly and Nate Pearson. I don’t think Craig Counsell has had his best year, but it’s not like he’s been working with Josh Hader and Devin Williams, either.

Two brutal losses in a row, coupled with a pair of Mets wins, probably bury the Cubs. They’re now 75-72, and with the top teams in the NL wild-card race setting a higher bar this year, they likely need to close 12-3, get to 87 wins, to have any chance. Even that might not be enough with their bad tiebreaker situation. They’re likely to finish one superstar season out of the playoff mix.
 

Friday, September 13, 2024

Newsletter Excerpt, September 13, 2024 -- "Jacob deGrom"

 

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deGrom certainly looked healthy in his minor-league rehab stints, striking out 15 of the 36 batters he faced while allowing two doubles and two singles. In the two starts for which we have Statcast data, deGrom averaged 98.2 mph with his fastball, 90 mph with his slider. He’s 15 months removed from his second Tommy John surgery, his first as a pro, so the Rangers have taken their time with him. I’d expect him to pitch well tonight and in his next few starts, if only because it’s been quite a long time since he’s done anything else.
 
 

Thursday, September 12, 2024

Newsletter Excerpt, September 12, 2024 -- "The Padres Are So Extra"

 

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Credit A.J. Preller for everything he did right this year -- stuff I agreed with, stuff I didn’t agree with, stuff I think he got lucky on. If you want, credit Mike Shildt, who was deeply unimpressive in St. Louis, with doing a better job than he did with those Cardinals just by avoiding the big mistakes. Acknowledge that this team shaved 4% off its strikeout rate, changing the shape of its offensive output -- more singles, fewer walks, less power -- and improving it a bit relative to the league.

All of that narrative -- much of it fact-based! -- eventually runs into this:

2023 Padres through nine innings: 80-68-14 (.537 WPct.), +120 run differential
2024 Padres through nine innings: 74-64-9 (.534 WPct.), +61 run differential

2023 Padres in extra innings: 2-12, -15 run differential
2024 Padres in extra innings: 8-1, +10 run differential
 
 

Tuesday, September 10, 2024

Newsletter Excerpt, September 10, 2024 -- "Bad Schedule"

 

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As I wrote last week, the league can only do so much to create meaningful baseball in September given its priorities. The win distribution will be what it will be, and some years it won’t map well to the playoff structure. The league can only do so much; plan out a lot of divisional matchups in September, and you may not get the ones you need for late-season drama.

The piece the league does control, though, is interleague. MLB made a big deal of its everybody-plays-everybody scheduling last year, and that has its fans. Building 46 interleague games into every schedule comes with a cost, and that cost is currently paid in September. The season’s final weekend probably will have more interleague series (three) than important head-to-head ones. The Royals play their last game against an AL team on September 18. The Yankees play 15 of their final 34 games against the NL, just seven against the AL East.

Monday, September 9, 2024

Newsletter Excerpt, September 9, 2024 -- "Thinking Inside the Box"

 

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Cubs 2, Yankees 1

                  AB  R  H  BI
Verdugo LF         3  0  1   0


I may be the only person in a 25-mile radius not freaking out about this. For those of you too far away to hear the screaming...the Yankees didn’t call up Jasson Dominguez, their top prospect and MLB Pipeline’s #16 prospect, when rosters expanded on September 1. They’re sticking with Alex Verdugo, who has something like three hits and one walk since the middle of May. Verdugo’s good defense has made him worth about a win this year, but he’s the weak spot in a Yankee lineup with a lot of disappointing hitters, down to ninth in the batting order because there is no tenth.

Dominguez had 17 PA in the majors last year, hit four home runs, and became the darling of Yankee fans who had been hearing about him since the second Reagan administration. He then suffered a torn right UCL and underwent Tommy John surgery. Dominguez is 21 and has just 267 total plate appearances above Double-A. He’s been good at Triple-A this year in less than 200 PA, but hardly dominant: .309/.368/.480. His minor-league batted ball data isn’t terribly impressive — 7% barrel rate, .459 expected SLG, 88 mph EV. He’s a year removed from Tommy John surgery, which has diminished superstars for up to 18 months past the surgery date.

There’s been a lot of talk this year about how players coming up from the minors are struggling initially because of the wide gap in pitching quality that now exists between the minors and majors. We saw Jackson Holliday start 2-for-34 and Jackson Chourio take a couple of months to get going. Take a guy who is not dominating Triple-A and ask him to make that adjustment, and it’s hardly clear he’ll be better than the alternative, no matter how annoying the alternative here.

Throw it all together, and I see more risk in bringing up Dominguez than others do, with a real possibility that it’s a brutal experience that affects his development. I don’t love dropping him into a situation where fans are going to treat him like a savior when he’s a 21-year-old coming off major surgery with a half-season of playing time at the top two levels. I think the Yankees are making a coin flip short-term decision and the right medium-term one.
 
 

Thursday, September 5, 2024

Newsletter Excerpt, September 5, 2024 -- "No-Hitters Are Nice, But..."

 

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The situation the Cubs find themselves in, unlikely to make the playoffs despite their big free-agent signing working out, has been replicated all around baseball. The Cubs’ rivals, the Cardinals, signed Sonny Gray to a three-year deal and have gotten 26 starts of 3.84 ERA ball while never really contending in the NL. The Cardinals’ whole offseason approach, in fact, to sign veteran innings guys, has worked -- 75 starts and more than 400 innings of a 4.09 ERA from Gray, Kyle Gibson, and Lance Lynn