"Thinking Inside the Box" is an occasional Newsletter feature that pulls topics from a reading of the box scores. The lines in fixed-width are the player's box score line for the game in question.
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I couldn’t wait another month to pull this conceit out....
Pirates (SS) 7, Orioles 3
IP H R ER BB K
Sugano 2.0 2 0 0 1 0
Among the many things I disliked about the Orioles’ offseason was the team signing Tomoyuki Sugano to a one-year, $13 million contract. He is a soft-tossing righty coming off an excellent 12-year career in NPB. Sugano became the Carlos Silva of Japan in his thirties, succeeding by not walking anyone making up for his low strikeout rates. That’s what jumps out at me about his U.S. debut yesterday: No strikeouts, just three swings-and-misses on 28 pitches, fastballs that topped out at 93 and sat 92. He does have a good splitter, which he used seven times and got two swings-and-misses on. Still, I thought he was a fringe #5 when the Orioles signed him, and nothing yesterday changed my mind.
Astros 3, Nationals 0
AB R H BI
Diaz C 2 1 1 2 HR
I’m mostly listing Yainer Diaz’s good game as a reason to point to this Ben Clemens piece at FanGraphs, where he makes the case for a Diaz breakout season. I was on Diaz all through last draft season, coming off his .282/.308/.538 rookie campaign. Diaz was good -- .299/.325/.441, 118 OPS+, 3.2 bWAR -- while feeling like a disappointment. I’ll let you read Ben’s case, which put me back on Diaz as one of the rare guys in today’s game with a chance to hit .320.
Twins 4, Tigers 0
AB R H BI
Liranzo DH 1 0 0 0 3 BB
I am hard-pressed to remember many three-walk games in spring training, and at that, many February games in which a player went the distance. Thayron Liranzo, a catcher who was the main prospect in the Jack Flaherty trade last summer, turned both those tricks yesterday. At an old 20 last year, Liranzo had a 102/75 K/BB in high-A ball, including a 20/26 mark -- not a typo -- after the trade. It’s a ridiculously mature approach for someone younger than the top six hitters taken in the 2024 draft. There are questions about his defense, as he’s a big kid and still growing. If he eventually moves to first base, though, the bat can still play.
Braves 9, Pirates (SS) 4
AB R H BI
Riley 3B 3 0 0 0
Forget the 0-fer. For the third time in five games, Brian Snitker slotted Austin Riley second in the lineup. Yesterday’s top five -- Jurickson Profar, Riley, Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna, Michael Harris II -- seems likely to be the team’s Opening Day lineup. Riley wouldn’t really be my pick to bat second, as he’s a significant double-play threat. As a fantasy asset, though, he’ll get a month or two of extra ABs and could add some additional runs scored until Ronald Acuña Jr. returns.
Yankees 7, Cardinals 0
AB R H BI
Winn SS 3 0 0 0
Again, forget the line and focus on this: Masyn Winn batted leadoff again. It’s interesting that the Cards were playing the Yankees, because I think of Winn as the NL’s version of Anthony Volpe. They’re both right/right shortstops who are among the best defenders in the game while still being works in progress at the plate. Winn has been the better hitter, is about 11 months younger than Volpe, and better at the same age.
What he’s not is a leadoff man. Winn had a .314 OBP in his first full season, .312 against right-handed pitching. Winn can get the bat to the ball, with just a 17% strikeout rate. He just doesn’t make fantastic contact, as all this blue shows. He’s a #6 or #7 hitter whom Oli Marmol decided to turn into a leadoff man, much as Aaron Boone has tried to do with Volpe. The effort was forced in the Bronx, and it’s forced in St. Louis.
The Cardinals, whom I’ll break down in their own Newsletter shortly, are closer to being a playoff team than they seem to think they are. Swapping out Winn up top for Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, or really any of four or five guys will make the offense flow much better.
While I’m here...
IP H R ER BB K
Hence (L, 0-1) 1.1 5 6 6 1 1 HR
Throw it out. The Yankees got five hits off Tink Hence, but just two of them came off the bat at better than 90 mph. It was just one of those days, one that wrecks his Grapefruit League numbers without meaning much to his prospect status.
Rays 8, Red Sox 2
AB R H BI
Mead 2B 2 1 2 1 HR
I keep thinking about this Jacob Edelman piece at Prospectus about Rays hitters who might be able to take advantage of Steinbrenner Field. My initial thought was that their lefties would all be helped, and Edelman does name-check Richie Palacios and Jonathan Aranda. Me, I’m back on Josh Lowe after an off-year in 2024. At the end of the article, though. Edelman points out that Curtis Mead’s all-fields approach could generate much better results in his new home. True to form, Mead’s first homer of the spring went over Fort Myers’s faux Green Monster in left-center.
It seems silly to suggest that a team that was 29th in MLB in runs, 23rd in wRC+, and added two players with sub-90 OPS+ marks last year might have too many good hitters. The Rays, though, have Junior Caminero ready to explode and a number of guys like Mead and Aranda who have failed to launch thus far. This offense could end up +100 runs this year.
AB R H BI
Bregman 3B 2 0 0 2
Rafael Devers has yet to make his spring debut as he works back from the shoulder problems that cut his 2024 campaign a little short. In his two starts so far, Alex Bregman has played third both times, and he’s yet to appear at second base. I find this notable, as Bregman has 32 total innings of experience at second, none since 2018. If he is going to play second to accommodate Devers, he needs as many reps there as he can get.
Devers’s shoulder issues could end up the face-saving out for everyone here, if Devers is willing to take it. Devers may think of himself as a third baseman, but setting aside his issues in the field, his body seems to be rebelling against the notion. If serving as the DH keeps him in the lineup for 150 games, then maybe he can be convinced that’s the best path. I keep coming back to Harold Baines, whose knees pushed him into a full-time DH role in 1987, when he was 28, same as Devers is today. Maybe show Devers Baines’s Hall of Fame plaque.
The one thing Alex Cora has to do is pick a lane, starting both Bregman and Devers at one position every day. Flopping them between third base and designated hitter exposes both players to the DH penalty -- regular position players hit worse when serving as an occasional DH -- and makes the offense work. Moving Bregman back and forth between second and third seems like a recipe for bad defense and increased injury risk.
Cubs 4, Giants 4
AB R H BI
Allen RF 2 1 1 2 HR BB
Journeyman outfielder Greg Allen, who signed with the Cubs just last week, hit a two-run homer that tied the game in the eighth inning, which is where it ended. Allen played right yesterday, coming into the game mid-way, but has been a center fielder for most of his career. That’s important for the Cubs, who return just one player, starter Pete Crow-Armstrong, who played center for them in 2024. Kevin Alcantara, mostly a center fielder in the minors, is probably first up behind PCA, but like PCA we’re still learning whether Alcantara will hit in the majors. Vidal Brujan, who we already know won’t hit in the majors, is also vying for a backup CF job with the Cubs.
The tie kept the Cubs as the only team to not have lost a spring training game this year. They’re 6-0. I came out of the womb saying “spring training results” are meaningless, but in fairness, I haven’t examined the idea in a while, so I went looking just at the best team in March the last...however many years until I got tired.
2024: Orioles, 23-6 (91-71, AL wild card)
2023: Cardinals, 17-7 (71-91)
2022: Angels, 11-6 (lockout) (73-89)
2021: Marlins, 14-5 (short) (67-95)
2019: Yankees, 17-10 (103-59, won AL East)
2018: Red Sox, 22-9 (108-54, won World Series)
2017: Yankees, 24-9 (91-71, AL wild card)
2016: Nationals, 19-4 (95-67, won NL East)
2015: A’s, 22-11 (68-94) and Royals, 20-10 (won World Series)
2014: Rays, 16-7 (77-85)
2013: Royals, 25-7 (86-76)
2012: Blue Jays, 24-7 (73-89)
The best team in spring training is sometimes the best team in baseball...and sometimes finishes in last place. I can detect no pattern in this 15-minute “study.”
Padres 3, White Sox 1
IP H R ER BB K
Schultz 1 1 0 0 0 0
H. Smith 1 1 0 0 1 3
The future is coming, Sox fans. Two of the best pitching prospects in the sport tossed shutout innings yesterday at Camelback Ranch.
Noah Schultz needed just eight pitches to get through the fifth, touching 98 and sitting 97, showing off four different pitches in eight deliveries and getting out of the inning with a groundball double play. Hagen Smith, the team’s first-round pick out of Arkansas, followed Schultz by throwing 23 pitches and striking out the side around a walk and single. Smith also touched 98 and sat 97 while leaning on a slider that got four swings-and-misses on 11 tries.
These two won’t arrive for real until 2026, as Smith was just drafted and Schultz has been babied. There’s a chance, though, that they’re starting the first two games of a playoff series as soon as 2027.
The White Sox are 0-5, the only team yet to win an exhibition game. Same as above, what happens to the worst team in spring training.
2024: White Sox 9-20 (Worst. Team. Ever.)
2023: Marlins 7-16 (84-78, NL wild card)
2022: Nationals 4-11 (lockout) (55-107)
2021: Reds 7-19 (short) (83-79)
2019: Reds 7-19 (75-87)
2018: Rangers 8-22 (67-95)
2017: Braves 9-22 (72-90)
2016: Braves 6-20 (68-93)
2015: Rangers 9-19 (88-74, won AL West)
2014: Phillies 9-18 (73-89)
2013: Angels 10-20 (78-84)
2012: -dians 7-22 (68-94)
There is actually a bit more signal here. Of the 12 teams listed, nine finished under .500 and just two made the playoffs. If you’re the worst team in March, there’s an excellent chance you’re in for a long year.
Reds 9, Angels 4
AB R H BI
McLain 2B 3 2 3 2 HR, 2 2B
Marte 3B 2 1 1 2 3B
De La Cruz SS 3 1 2 2 HR, 2B
Arroyo SS 2 1 1 1
E’cion-Strand DH 3 1 1 1 HR
Remember 14 months ago when I trashed the Jeimer Candelario signing? This is why.
After a 2024 season in which most of these guys were injured or suspended, they all showed up on a Wednesday afternoon in Tempe and wrecked the box score. Every one of those players is 25 and younger, and every one should be playing every day, four of them in Cincinnati and one, Arroyo, in Double-A.
I can feel myself getting stupid about the Reds again. They are so young and so talented and I dearly wish they had been just a little more aggressive about improving their outfield and bullpen. Terry Francona will help, if he can stay healthy all season, but he could have used a bit more from Nick Krall and Bob Castellini this winter.
