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Solve for X, and the big trade ended up being Isaac Paredes and Cody Bellinger for Kyle Tucker and about $20 million in the short term, 2024 first-rounder Cam Smith. It made the Cubs a little better, but not by as much as it would have had they held Bellinger. Depending on your preferred projection system, the trade could be a baseball wash or worse; it hinges a lot on whether you think rookie Matt Shaw steps in and immediately becomes a two- to three-win player while still learning third base. The Cubs have never had a problem relying too much on rookie third basemen with short names, right?
I reject the argument that Bellinger had no place to play. He would have been the main backup at five spots -- across the outfield, first base, and DH -- giving the Cubs six players for those five spots. The chance that the top five guys at those positions play 155 games each is pretty much zero. Bellinger would also have served as insurance against Pete Crow-Armstrong not hitting. I think you can defend trading Bellinger, you just can’t defend trading him for Cody Poteet to save money.
