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You expect Justin Steele with an ERA in the mid 3.00s? He has 427 innings of 3.10 ERA pitching over the last three seasons, with FIP under 3.25 in all 3. He won't turn 30 until July. Why are we expecting a fairly serious downturn?
-- Mark W.
The xFIPs and xERAs have generally run higher than that, with low HR/FB rates that, in any given year, are expected to regress to a league mean. I don’t think that’s a skill for Steele or any pitcher, which is why I see him as a 3.40-3.50 instead of a 3.10. Every projection system has him 3.50-3.65. PECOTA says 3.65, too.
Both Steele’s four-seamer and slider have below-average velo, and he’s never really settled on a third pitch. I don’t think we’re that far apart on him, just that I’m expecting the low end of his range and you expect the high end.
Steele isn’t really a FIP beater. Just in the three full years, the two numbers are 3.10/3.14. He is an xFIP beater, which brings us to HR/FB rates and whether something is different at Wrigley. His HR/FB at home the last three years is 6.7%; on the road it’s 11.9%. Maybe that’s something the projection systems are seeing.
--J.
