The Joe Sheehan Newsletter: Alex Bregman Signs
Vol. 16, No. 155
February 13, 2025
So I am still visiting friends out in the L.A. area, and last night I went out with one of them. I knew what the next Newsletter would be, and we’re in that part of the winter when there’s not much big news. It seemed like a good night to knock back a couple -- my limit is a couple, I have the tolerance of a 16-year-old gymnast -- play shuffleboard, and have some laughs. It turns out the laughs were at my expense, as I am quite out of practice at bar shuffleboard, a game I was once pretty good at. (Unpaid endorsement of the place we played, it is great.)
I was almost completely off my phone for four hours, and when I checked Slack, I saw that Nick Pivetta had signed. That didn’t move my needle, though I think Pivetta is exactly the kind of bulk #4 the Padres very much needed. I kept scrolling, because there sure seemed to be a lot of posts and...oh...oh, no.
Alex Bregman, the last major free agent on the market, signed a three-year deal with the Red Sox for a face value of $120 million. (Deferrals will knock the real number down a bit.) Bregman can opt out of the deal after each of the first two seasons. Bregman, 31 and coming off a third straight four-win season, is betting that he can repeat his recent performance and hit the market again without the draft-pick penalty attached. There are reports that Bregman turned down longer-term offers with lower AAVs to sign with the Red Sox, further indication that he sees this as a pillow contract.
From December:
I’ve considered Alex Bregman (Law #5) an OBP guy for a long time, and it’s an open question whether he still is. After seven straight seasons with at least a .350 mark, he dropped to .315 last year, his walk rate collapsing by almost half relative to 2023. Bregman walked 7% of the time last year after being over 11% for six straight years. He was a different hitter, posting his highest swing rate and chase rate since his rookie season. His swing rate against fastballs was the highest of his career and a big jump over 2023. His swing rate against first-pitch fastballs, the same.
I put it all together and see a hitter who really doesn’t want to fall behind in the count, who may have some doubts about his ability to read and attack spin the deeper he gets. Against non-fastballs, Bregman slipped from a .329 expected wOBA in 2022 -- a good number -- to just a .272 mark last year.
Bregman turns 31 as the season begins, and I see a lot of collapse risk in this profile. He’s still good defensively, and he has been durable, so the floor is pretty high for the short term. I think I’d rather push a higher salary over fewer years, though. Would 3/90 get it done? I don’t want to be committed to Bregman for too much longer. I want to reiterate something I wrote yesterday -- even good players are often closer to the end than we think they are.
That ends up aging well, as Bregman’s contract will probably come in at 3/90 or so when the deferrals are calculated. The structure of the contract should keep the Red Sox under the payroll-tax threshold, if just barely, heading into the season.
I stand by what I said about Bregman’s projection. I think he’s a good contributor in 2025 with increasing collapse risk past that. The projection systems see him as a three- to four-win player, bolstered by a plus glove. Signing with the Red Sox gives him a chance to exploit the Green Monster, but it’s worth noting that Bregman’s pull rate and pulled flyball rate have been in decline for a while.
Spray Hitter? (Alex Bregman’s batted balls, 2021-2024)
Pull PullFB
2024 39.9% 12.0%
2023 42.6% 11.4%
2022 48.2% 14.6%
2021 52.2% 14.7%
Match that with the original notes about Bregman’s walk rate, aggressiveness, and struggles with breaking stuff, and it’s not hard to see potential decline. Still, there’s no such thing as a bad one-year deal, and there’s a strong likelihood that this is a one-year deal.
What the Red Sox get out of it depends in no small part on how they deploy Bregman and his new teammates. The Sox already had a very crowded infield thanks to the emergence of Kristian Campbell as one of the game’s very best prospects. Early speculation has Bregman taking over at second base, a position where he’s played 32 pro innings, none since 2018. This would be an enormous mistake for both Bregman and the Sox, as much of Bregman’s value in Boston will come from his defense, and at that, his being an improvement on the glove of Rafael Devers.
ImBregnable vs. Sieve-rs (selected defensive numbers, 2021-24)
DRS 2021 2022 2023 2024 Tot
Bregman +2 -4 +5 +6 +9
Devers -12 -6 -8 -9 -37
OAA 2021 2022 2023 2024 Tot
Bregman 0 +8 +2 +6 +16
Devers -13 -2 -8 -6 -29
Over the last four years, Rafael Devers is the worst regular third baseman in baseball with the glove, consistently below average and almost always bad. Bregman, in that time, is eighth in Outs Above Average among 37 qualifiers. To sign Bregman and then not use him at third base in favor of Devers would be an enormous mistake that eats much of the value of signing him.
There’s no certainty that Bregman takes to second base. The skills required of the two positions are disparate. Third base requires quick reactions, a strong arm, and the ability to come in on a ball to field squibs and bunts. Second base minimizes the value of an arm while asking for greater lateral range and turning double plays on the pivot. The latter task is a bit easier these days, as runners are no longer permitted to slide aggressively, but it’s still a real skill Bregman has almost no experience with six weeks from Opening Day.
Playing Bregman at second protects the ego of Devers, a great hitter and a player the Sox have signed through 2033. The cost is that it makes the team’s defense at least a win worse at third, and potentially worse at second, while introducing additional injury risk to Bregman. It blocks Campbell, buries Vaughn Grissom, and puts a new barrier in Marcelo Mayer’s way. It does all this while leaving Masataka Yoshida in the DH spot rather than letting Devers get on with his bat-first career.
I understand and appreciate the soft factors, the ego management here. It’s not an easy conversation to have with Devers. From a baseball standpoint, though, the only way signing Bregman makes sense for the Sox is if in doing so, the team plays him at third base and moves Devers to DH -- while keeping Triston Casas locked in at first.
This is normally where I’d do a roster breakdown, but I want to see how Alex Cora deploys his players when the Grapefruit League opens. The Red Sox have made the investment their fans were hoping to see, but they have to finish the job by playing Bregman where he does them the most good.
