Monday, September 15, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, September 15, 2025 -- "Two Weeks. Notice! (NL Version)"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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The Cubs are 5 1/2 games behind the Brewers with an elimination number of eight, and 8 1/2 games clear of the final wild-card spot. They’re pretty much playing out the string, which is one reason they stuck Kyle Tucker on the IL rather than have him play through left calf tightness.

Notice! The Cubs have had an unsettled bullpen for most of the season, and most recently lost Daniel Palencia, who had mostly taken the ninth-inning role, to a shoulder strain. At the moment, Andrew Kittredge seems to be the closer, with Brad Keller also in the mix. In front of those two are a lot of pitchers who have been both very good and very bad at various times. There’s a scent of the 2018 Red Sox here, or the 2021 Braves, teams that didn’t seem to have very good pens until their relievers went off for four weeks in October. Sometimes it doesn’t matter how good you are so much as it matters how well you pitch in a very small sample. We’ll circle back to this idea if we get a Cubs/Padres matchup in the first round.

What’s Left? 3 @PIT, 4 @CIN, 3 vs. NYM, 3 vs. STL. A dozen or so remaining chances to hear the vocal stylings of the great Boog Sciambi. (Well, the playoffs for ESPN, too.) 
 
 

Newsletter Excerpt, September 15, 2025 -- "Two Weeks. Notice! (AL Version)"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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Just like that, the Mariners are in first place, the memory of losing 14 of 20 long gone. They took a big dose of Vitamin A this weekend, sweeping the collapsing Angels to extend their winning streak to nine games and grab a one-game edge over the Astros in the AL West.

Notice! The pitching has righted itself since a disastrous trip to Steinbrenner Field to start the month: a 2.16 ERA and 2.74 FIP in the ten games since then. Yes, that’s schedule-aided, but some part of winning is shutting down the teams you’re supposed to shut down. The bullpen I have been yammering about for six months has had a great ten-game run, with a 44/4 K/UIBB and just one homer allowed. Everyone but Eugenio Suarez is hitting, too. 

What’s Left? 3 @KC, 3 @HOU, 3 vs. COL, 3 vs. LAD. Hey, more teams that can’t hit. Even that final series against the Dodgers is likely to play much softer than it looks, as the Dodgers will probably be locked into playing in the first round, which starts 48 hours after the season ends. This weekend’s series with the Astros is enormous, as whoever wins it also wins the tiebreaker between the two teams.
 
 
 
 
 

Friday, September 12, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, September 12, 2025 -- "“Step right up and beat the Mets...”

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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The Royals scored eight runs in four games against the Guardians, losing three, and probably their playoff hopes along with them. In three seasons as GM, J.J. Piccolo’s offenses have a 91 wRC+, 27th in MLB ahead of just the Pirates, White Sox, and Rockies. This year’s team is going to fall short of the postseason thanks to the fourth-worst offense in the game. For all Piccolo’s success in picking pitchers to trade for and sign, he’s been a disaster when it comes to acquiring and deploying hitters, and he shares blame for the team’s failure to develop its own. Fixing the lineup has to be priorities #1 through #5 for the Royals this winter. 
 
 

Wednesday, September 10, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, September 10, 2025 -- "Thinking Inside the Box"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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Phillies 9, Mets 3

HR: Schwarber (50)

Kyle Schwarber doesn’t have an NL MVP case, but so what? He has a 50-homer season, money in the bank. an enviable postseason track record, and the love of two fanbases.

It seems to me that Schwarber’s last two years underline the value of getting him off the field. Schwarber made 138 starts in left field in 2022, his first year with the Phillies, and 103 two years ago. Last year, they turned him into a DH, and he’s had just 13 starts in the field over two years. Those are also two of the best three years of his career, including this one: .240/.364/.562 with those 50 jacks and his lowest strikeout rate since 2019. He’s also been very durable: Schwarber is tied for third in plate appearances since he joined the Phillies in ’22, just a handful behind Matt Olson and Francisco Lindor.

Schwarber’s three-run homer in the seventh sealed the Phillies’ win and ended the NL East race. The Phillies’ magic number is nine and it’s just a race to see who will clinch their division first, them or the Tigers. The Phillies are also four up on the Dodgers for a first-round bye, and 2-0 since losing Trea Turner. Being able to coast through the final few weeks and not play in the first round will buy some extra time for Turner’s strained right hamstring to heal.

 
 
 

Monday, September 8, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, September 8, 2025 -- "No Sweeps"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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Since losing Jonathan Aranda at the trade deadline on July 31, the Rays are 23rd in runs scored and 22nd in wRC+ (93), down from tenth and 16th (99) in those categories prior to Aranda breaking his wrist. Aranda’s long-awaited breakout season -- .316/.394/.478 -- was sustaining this offense, and his loss may cost the Rays a playoff berth. The Rays have failed to reach even three runs in a game a third of the time without him. They have seven games left with the Jays, but have now dropped to 11 behind them, ending their AL East hopes.

 
 
 

Newsletter Excerpt, September 5, 2025 -- "Showdown Showcase"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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The Brewers, I can understand. The Jays’ success is a bit harder to get at, as the individual elements aren’t as impressive. Third-order record, though, sees them as just two games worse than actual. They do get a boost in close games; their one-run/extra-innings record is 23-18. They’re 8-4 in extras, and as I wrote a couple of weeks back, that is pretty much their edge over the Red Sox and Yankees. Updating...

Blue Jays in regulation, 73-55, 570 (8-4 in extras)
Yankees in regulation, 73-54, .575 (5-8 in extras)
Red Sox in regulation, 71-51, .582 (7-12 in extras)

The stupid-runner rule is flipping the AL East this year.