Monday, October 19, 2026

Newsletter Excerpt, October 19, 2026 -- "Postseason 2026: Thinking Inside the Bunt"

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Simpson took a fastball on the inner half for strike one. Gaddis went back to his four-seamer, this time over the outer half, and Simpson quickly squared and dropped a bunt down the third-base line. This wasn’t a sacrifice attempt, boxscore be damned, this was a bunt for a hit, and it was perfect. The ball bounced on the dirt, hopped on to the grass, and stayed there instead of kicking foul like many bunts do. This one hugged the edge of the turf like an old friend. Given Simpson’s speed, it was as clean a hit as any 450-foot homer.


[Jose Ramirez has entered the chat]


The first thing you notice, when the camera angle changes, is Ramirez sharply changing direction. He’d been playing in on the grass, because with a runner on first and Simpson up, a bunt was likely. Ramirez, though, had been shaded towards the middle of the diamond, so to play this perfect bunt, he had to move to his right. He made that adjustment not in a direct line, the way you might angle towards a fly ball, but with a quick step that resembled a wide receiver’s cut. This one step was critical, because without it, Ramirez would have been moving away from first base when he fielded the ball, and unable to get much on his throw. Instead, Ramirez is able to barehand the ball, plant his leg and throw.


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Newsletter Excerpt, October 18, 2026 -- "Postseason 2026: Up Top Shows Up"


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So if we’re looking back in a few days at a Rays’ series win, we can circle a three-pitch sequence in the third inning of the Rays’ 7-3 win yesterday. With the team down 1-0, two outs and nobody on, Diaz went with a good two-seam fastball on the outer edge and lined it into the right-center gap, stretching a double into a double. Two pitches later, Aranda, hitless in the series, broke his bat and that streak with a bloop single to center off a good sweeper. Foster Griffin hadn’t make a mistake, but the game was tied.


Then in the sixth inning, game still tied at one, Aranda worked a six-pitch walk from Daniel Espino. Chandler Simpson, batting third as a tactic to counter the Guardians’ use of an opener, walked on seven pitches. Espino got ahead of Caminero 0-2 and went after him with the high fastball that had been so effective in striking out Caminero in Games One and Three. This time, though, Caminero jumped on it, pulling it just over Jose Ramirez’s glove to score Aranda and give the Rays the lead. All three of the hitters atop the Rays lineup now had hits, and two had scored the team’s only runs.


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Newsletter Excerpt, October 17, 2026 -- "Postseason 2026: Rain Delay Theatre"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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I still think of rotations as five men in five days, with “normal” rest being four days. That’s really not the case any more. Rasmussen, to pick a guy, made seven starts on four days’ rest, 18 on five days’ rest, and five on six or more days’ rest. Peralta made ten starts on four days’ rest, 22 on five or more. Across MLB, just 29% of all starts were made on four days’ rest. The five-man rotation has really become a six-day rotation, another contributing factor to the diminishing workloads of starting pitchers. (Fantasy players have surely noticed the decline of two-start weeks over time.)


So knowing he’s getting just one more start from Rasmussen and Peralta each in this series, Cash has chosen to keep them on their usual six-day rotation rather than the every-fourth-game calendar that is more typical for the postseason. I don’t think it’s how I would have done it, but I can see the rationale. I would imagine, if the Rays advance, Cash will then use the two on four days’ rest in the first two games of the World Series.


(There’s a conversation that begins, “If they’re only going to pitch every sixth day or so, why can’t they pitch deeper into games?” that we can have in December. Pitcher development and usage are broken.)



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Friday, October 16, 2026

Newlsetter Excerpt, October 16, 2026 -- "Milwaukee Broomers"

 This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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Postseason 2026: Milwaukee Broomers 

October 16, 2026


Last night, when Shohei Ohtani blasted a three-run homer in the second inning to put the Dodgers up 4-0, it seemed like we’d be headed for a fifth NLCS game. The Brewers and Pat Murphy would work their B bullpen, the Dodgers would get some tack-on runs to make their stats look better, and we’d get a Tarik Skubal/Jacob Misiorowski rematch tonight. When the Brewers went down 1-2-3 in the top of the third, that path seemed set.


The Brewers, though, just kept coming. Even in that three-up, three-down third, Cooper Pratt worked a nine-pitch strikeout. In the fourth, Brice Turang drew a six-pitch walk, and Jake Bauers drove in two runs with a double on the sixth pitch he saw to make it 4-2. Taking the mound in the fifth, Glasnow needed five pitches to retire each of the first two batters of the inning, and he wouldn’t get through the frame. 


When I think about Brewers 4, Dodgers 0, the first thing I’ll picture is a Brewers batter taking a pitch just outside the zone, or fouling one off just inside it. The Brewers saw 4.13 pitches per plate appearance in sweeping the Dodgers, a mark that would have comfortably led MLB this season. They drew 18 walks in four games. They drew 22 full counts and slugged .813 with four extra-base hits when they did. The signature moments of the series were a 12-pitch walk and an 11-pitch homer, both by NLCS MVP Jake Bauers.


There are going to be people who really, really want the Brewers’ success to be about smallball and contact and running the bases and defense. The Brewers do play excellent defense and they run the bases pretty well and they do use one-run strategies. The key to their offense, though, is patience, and in this series, they leaned into the Three True Outcomes. They combined for 70 home runs, walks, and strikeouts for a TTO% of 47%. Adam Dunn’s career TTO mark is 49%. They swung at just 45% of the pitches they saw, slightly above their league-leading 44% mark during the season. The 2026 Brewers have a lot more in common with the 1990s Yankees than they do the 2010s Royals. 


The Brewers didn’t chase the game, but nevertheless they caught it. When they did, tying it in the fifth, taking the lead in the sixth, Pat Murphy went for the kill. He called on Aaron Ashby to start the seventh and never looked back. Continuing a bit of a theme this October, Ashby threw the final three innings of the game, facing 11 batters, walking no one and striking out three. Ashby threw 6 2/3 shutout innings in the NLCS. But for Bauers going nova, Ashby might have been the series MVP. Ashby allowed a couple of doubles, but he followed them by wiping out the Dodgers’ hitters.


After finally breaking through with some big hits in the second, the Dodgers went 0-for-6 with runners in scoring position over the rest of their season. One-out doubles in the sixth and eighth, and a leadoff double in the seventh, were all left stranded. The Dodgers, contra the Brewers, didn’t draw a walk after the third batter of the game, and they got to just two three-ball counts over the game’s final eight innings.


The Dodgers hit .185/.270/.250 with one homer and 11 runs in the series, and that’s why they’re going home early. They didn’t score in their last seven times up. The quality of their at-bats late in the game was terrible; Max Muncy, Shohei Ohtani, and Teoscar Hernandez all were made to look awful in high-leverage spots by JoJo Romero and Ashby.


Nothing worked for L.A. Glasnow, staked to a 4-0 lead, couldn’t get out of the fifth. The bullpen walked in the tying run and allowed solo homers to Garrett Mitchell to break the tie and David Hamilton to extend the lead. Dave Roberts issued another bad intentional walk that led to the tying run, had Kiké Hernandez bunt (I cannot get clarity on whether this was a manager call or not; it may not have been) a runner to third with nobody out to set up a very bad Ohtani/Ashby matchup, and tried to get three innings out of Edwin Diaz. 


The Dodgers were the second-best team in a playoff series for the first time in a long time. All of the concerns that existed about this team a week ago -- aging offense, weak corner defense, erratic bullpen -- were on display over four games. What was supposed to save the team was the starting rotation, which carried the team to last year’s championship. Dodger starting pitchers were staked to leads, however small, in every game, and blew each of them. (Technically, Glasnow left with a lead, but I don’t think that’s how history will remember his effort after being up 4-0 and being charged with four runs.) Their starters had a 6.50 ERA in this series and allowed four homers. 


The Brewers are 7-1 in the tournament, and that’s while getting just 8 1/3 innings from Jacob Misiorowski, with Jackson Chourio hitting .171/.211/.343 out of the leadoff spot, with Cooper Pratt making three errors on the record and a couple of other plays not made ($1, Jamey Newberg) that cost the Brewers. They’re firing on most cylinders, just not all of them. Now they get a week of rest for a World Series in which they’ll be the better team and have home-field advantage. Their story may not have peaked.



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Thursday, October 15, 2026

Newsletter Excerpt, October 15, 2026 -- "Postseason 2026: The Same Gag Twice"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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I can’t put this on Roberts. I think had he lifted Snell after six innings with a lead, it would have been reasonable. I also think he would have inspired all the same criticisms that Cash did in 2020, regardless of the result. Forget “cruising” or outcomes: Snell was pounding the zone and holding his velocity. He wasn’t past any pitch-count markers; he threw 100 pitches twice in September and at least 90 in five straight starts in late summer. Tactically, there were two lefties coming up in the inning. There was a lot more evidence that Snell should start the seventh than there was that he should come out.


Both Cash in 2020 and Roberts in 2026 made choices that made sense in an effort to win the game. You judge the process, not the result, and both managers’ processes were sound. The other guys get paid, too.


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Wednesday, October 14, 2026

Newsletter Excerpt, October 14, 2026 -- "Postseason 2026: Hero Takes a Fall"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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This is a pretty bad matchup for Snell. Among all pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched this year, he had the lowest rate of throwing pitches in the strike zone, doing so just over a third of the time. The Brewers will take and take until they get pointed to first base or they see a pitch they like. They had the highest walk rate and lowest chase rate of any team in the game. They have a 12% walk rate in these playoffs, highest of any team. 


A guy who won’t throw strikes against a team that won’t swing at balls. There’s your storyline. 


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