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19. St. Louis Cardinals (82-80, fourth in NL Central, 688 runs scored, 706 runs allowed).
This is a lateral move from last year, which itself was a season in which the Cardinals wildly outplayed their underlying numbers. PECOTA and FanGraphs both have the Cards underwater, so what am I seeing, or maybe just missing?
I’m higher on the Cardinals’ young hitters, individually and collectively. With Victor Scott II winning the center field job, the Cards will have five players 25 and younger in their lineup most days, plus Lars Nootbaar at 27. The only thirtysomethings among the hitters will be Willson Contreras and, for the moment, Nolan Arenado. The Cardinals have more good young players than the Pirates, in year nine of their rebuild, have, and they have had just one year under .500 in all that time. I am bullish on Jordan Walker, Ivan Herrera, and for the 13th straight season, Nolan Gorman. The team’s decision to go with Scott in center is a strong one, as well.
I like the Cards’ pen a lot, which is one reason for the disconnect between the team’s projected run differential and its record. Seven of the top eight pitchers return from a pen that was 12th in fWAR a year ago, with Phil Maton taking Andrew Kittredge’s spot as the token ex-Ray. For the moment, Matthew Liberatore is in the rotation with Steven Matz in the bullpen, a probably easily solved by right-hander Michael McGreevy and an overdue willingness to eat Matz’s contract.
The rotation, no matter the #5, is weak spot. In addition to Matz, Miles Mikolas is someone who the team has to be willing to move on from. The Cards have a crop of arms on the brink of the majors, in particular lefty Quinn Matthews, who is a major-league starter right now. McGreevy, Tink Hence, and maybe Sam Robberse are in this mix. What we’re talking about here isn’t a player development decision, but a player selection one. Matz is already waiver bait, and Mikolas should only get maybe a month to show whether he is as well. Can the Cardinals bite the bullet on those salaries to make the on-field team better?
The bet here is that they do, and perhaps even go further and eat a lot of money to trade Arenado, which would clear the way for the team to move Gorman back to third, get their best defensive alignment on the field, and start the clock on the 2025-29 Cardinals, a team that should be very good.
Upside: The young hitters all take steps forward and the Cardinals front office shows a ruthlessness that hasn’t been there in the last 20 years, moving on from the veterans. It all adds up to a wild-card berth at 89-73.
Downside: The rotation doesn’t turn over, and a so-so defense is a poor match for the low-strikeout group. Too many games are out of reach early, and the Cards’ limp to a 76-86 finish after selling at the deadline.
The Whole Hog: The best shortstop arms I have ever seen were attached to Shawon Dunston and Andrelton Simmons. If I had to choose, I’d pick Dunston, but Simmons’s arm came with a stronger overall skill set. Take it seriously when I say Masyn Winn may be on that tier. He has an absolute cannon, and is closer as a complete defender to Simmons than he is to Dunston. When you can, catch some Cards games not for the spectacular, but for the routine throws by Winn. He’s got a gift.
