Newsletter Excerpt, May 7, 2025 -- "Kind of a Drag"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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A well-struck batted ball in 2025 is flying, on average, about five feet less than it did in 2023. It’s flying more than ten feet less than it did in 2019. It’s the lowest-fly baseball in the decade-long history of tracking. These are enormous differences, especially in a sport where power has become the most reliable, often the only reliable, means of scoring runs. 

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, May 6, 2025 -- "Fun With Numbers: 1/x Games"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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The first thing you notice when you look at this is that the distribution of 1/x records tends to be narrower than the distribution of all records. The closer the game, the more likely it is to be decided by a good bounce, a bad call, one play made or not made. The range of all winning percentages last year was .605 to .253; the range of 1/x games, .604 to .295. The team that broke the modern record for losses in a season, the White Sox, went 13-31 (.295) in 1/x games, 28-91 (.237) in all others. Performance in 1/x games can make or break a season, but it’s not as strong an indicator of team quality as performance in other games or, in particular, in blowouts (games decided by at least five runs).

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, April 30, 2025 -- "Here We Go Again"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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Maybe not these Rockies, though. They don’t do anything. They’re 28th in batting average, 20th in homers, 28th in steals, 25th in walks. They’re 28th in ERA, 26th in FIP, 26th in fWAR, 30th in strikeout rate, 19th in walk rate. I thought they might build around a strong defense; they’re 21st in Outs Above Average, 29th in Defensive Runs Saved, 30th in Defensive Efficiency. The Rockies have the lowest rate of hard-hit balls in the league, and just four teams have barreled fewer balls. On the flip side, no pitching staff has allowed more hard-hit balls. It’s 29 games, so all caveats about sample size apply, but the Rockies have earned 4-25. 

Newsletter Excerpt, April 28, 2025 -- "Thinking Inside the Box"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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Giants 3, Rangers 2

                     IP  H  R ER BB  K

Birdsong            3.0  3  0  0  0  5

Boy, do I love me a multi-inning relief pitcher. Hayden Birdsong, who lost out in the battle for the Giants’ fifth-starter spot to Landon Roupp, has instead become an absolute weapon out of the pen. He’s made seven relief appearances: three of three innings, three of two innings, just one that went one inning. He’s posted a 1.13 ERA and a 2.93 FIP, and in his last two outings has gone six innings while striking out nine of 23 batters faced. It’s all leverage work, too; in his last two appearances he started the sixth inning with the game ties, and his shutout innings led directly to Giants wins.

Birdsong has ditched his curve in making the move to the pen, picking up a half-tick on his fastball and more than two on his slider. His most effective weapon, though, has been a changeup that he uses to both lefties and righties, and that he’s been going out of the zone with more for whiffs -- a 50% swing-and-miss rate on the pitch. It’s the new hotness, a kick change that, per Eno Sarris, he throws with a rare grip.

We’ve seen Bob Melvin have success doing this with a pitcher before, getting the best work of Yusmeiro Petit’s long career in 2018 and 2019. Petit was 33 in 2018, though, while Birdsong is 23. The catch with a pitcher in this role is that it’s neither fish nor fowl, and as important as it can be to a team, it’s not one from which Birdsong is going to become rich or famous. The Giants haven’t had to go off rotation yet, but whether it’s a Justin Verlander injury, a Jordan Hicks spate of wildness, or Landon Roupp losing effectiveness, they will need a sixth starter, and Birdsong will probably be first up. It’s a shame, because the three-and-free reliever can be a critical player in the era of five-and-fly starters.

As an aside, this was a very good, tight, entertaining series that ended on one of the worst plays you’ll see all season.

 

Newsletter Excerpt, April 25, 2025 -- "Mailbag"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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For heavens’ sake, please tell us what the hell is wrong with Julio Rodriguez?

-- Ed Q.

I get the frustration, but this is actually one of the best starts of Rodriguez’s career. A 110 OPS+ is way ahead of where he was in 2022 and 2024 at this point, and not far from where he was in 2023. The process stats are within his normal range, his average exit velocity and max EV are as well. He’s getting murdered on balls in play, a .246 BABIP that’s 90 points off his career level. Per Statcast he’s missing 40 points of BA and 65 points of SLG. so this really looks like a guy hitting into bad luck.

There’s a disconnect between his swing-and-miss rate, which is one of the worst in the game, and his strikeout rate, which has actually gone down slightly. He’s swinging through a lot of strikes, more than ever before. I’m loath to dig too deep into this on April 24, to be honest — it’s just something to keep an eye on. 

--J.

 

 

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, April 24, 2025 -- "Potpourri"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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The Orioles’ pitching investments this winter were one-year deals for a total of $28 million for Tomoyuki Sagano and Charlie Morton. Morton has the highest ERA of any starter, 10.89; Sugano actually has a 3.54 mark in five starts, but it’s a mirage. He’s struck out nine of 113 batters and comes with a 5.81 FIP. Just one starting pitcher in the last 18 seasons has managed to be worth even one bWAR with a sub-10% strikeout rate: Paul Blackburn in 2017. Set the line at 12%, and you can find some examples starting in 2017 -- Ty Blach in ’17, Martin Perez in ’16, some more in 2015. In 2025, though, it’s just not possible to survive this way.