Newsletter Excerpt, October 15, 2026 -- "Postseason 2026: The Same Gag Twice"

 

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I can’t put this on Roberts. I think had he lifted Snell after six innings with a lead, it would have been reasonable. I also think he would have inspired all the same criticisms that Cash did in 2020, regardless of the result. Forget “cruising” or outcomes: Snell was pounding the zone and holding his velocity. He wasn’t past any pitch-count markers; he threw 100 pitches twice in September and at least 90 in five straight starts in late summer. Tactically, there were two lefties coming up in the inning. There was a lot more evidence that Snell should start the seventh than there was that he should come out.

Both Cash in 2020 and Roberts in 2026 made choices that made sense in an effort to win the game. You judge the process, not the result, and both managers’ processes were sound. The other guys get paid, too.

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Newsletter Excerpt, October 14, 2026 -- "Postseason 2026: Hero Takes a Fall"

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This is a pretty bad matchup for Snell. Among all pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched this year, he had the lowest rate of throwing pitches in the strike zone, doing so just over a third of the time. The Brewers will take and take until they get pointed to first base or they see a pitch they like. They had the highest walk rate and lowest chase rate of any team in the game. They have a 12% walk rate in these playoffs, highest of any team. 

A guy who won’t throw strikes against a team that won’t swing at balls. There’s your storyline. 

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Newsletter Excerpt, October 13, 2026 -- "Postseason 2026: Twelve Pitches, Nine Minu...no, wait."

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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The Rays cut the deficit to 4-3 in the bottom of the frame. Now, a one-run deficit in the top of the ninth is a high-leverage spot, never more so than in a best-of-seven. Cash, whose bullpen is better rested than the U.S. House of Representatives, had used his best lefty and third-best righty. He had Kevin Kelly and Bryan Baker available. Instead, he called on Cole Sulser, well down the depth chart. It was an inexplicable choice given the importance of the situation. Sulser somehow allowed a hit to Angel Martinez, breaking Martinez’s 0-for-16 run, balked him to second, and then gave up Ramirez’s second nonsense hit in half an hour, fisted into left field for a key insurance run. Ramirez, beaten twice in two at-bats, found two singles that led to five runs and a 7-3 Guardians win. 

The last two runs are worth highlighting. With first and second and two out and Jo Adell up, Ramirez broke for third on an 0-1 pitch, which Adell fouled off. Two pitches later, on 1-2, Ramirez went again. Junior Caminero moved to cover third, and Adell hit a ground ball right to where Caminero would have been. The attempted steal turned an out into a two-run double.

Guardians. The little ball with a big story to tell.

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Newsletter Excerpt, October 12, 2026 -- "Postseason 2026: ALCS Preview"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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When projecting a playoff series, I try to think of paths. What ways could each team beat the other, and how realistic are they? It’s hard to identify the Guardians’ paths through the Rays. They are off-rotation, with a heavily worked pitching staff, and they have the second-best everything. The Rays’ weak spot is one of the worst infield defenses in baseball by Outs Above Average. The Guardians, though, have a bottom-ten groundball rate (higher, though, since the trade deadline). The Guardians manage the strike zone well, with the best offensive K/BB in the AL. Rays pitchers had the fifth-lowest walk rate of any team this decade. If we take strikeouts and walks off the table and evaluate a team’s offense based on how it did when the bat hit the ball, the Guardians were second-to-last in the majors, just ahead of the Blue Jays. No team barreled fewer baseballs. 

I don’t see how the Guardians are going to score, and I don’t think the current version of this pitching staff can hang enough zeroes to win a bunch of low-scoring games. Everything, save perhaps seven innings of Gavin Williams, points to the Rays. We’ll call it a gentleman’s sweep, Rays in five.

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Newsletter Excerpt, October 12, 2026 -- "Postseason 2026: NLCS Game One"

 

 

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The Brewers faded a so-so start by The Miz and got to the sixth with a lead. Then the bullpen took over. DL Hall, Abner Uribe, Aaron Ashby, and Trevor Megill threw 4 2/3 shutout innings, Murphy alternating lefties and righties over the final five frames. Ashby was leaking oil at the end of his 26-pitch outing, and Trevor Megill did not have his command at all, but the Dodgers were unable to take advantage, going hitless over the final three innings, scoreless over the final seven, winless over the last nine.

The margins are incredibly fine at this level, two great teams, two great pitchers. Misiorowski was a little off and couldn’t get out of the fifth. Skubal made a couple of mistakes and both led to runs. The Dodgers had 11 hard-hit balls, but none of them longer than 385 feet in the air. (I joked about the league finding a pallet of Happy Fun Balls from 2019 for this round; they were definitely not in play last night.) 

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Newsletter Excerpt, October 11, 2026 -- "Postseason 2026: NLCS Preview"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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These are mostly the same teams they were a year ago. The differences, though, favor the Brewers. They have an ace in Misiorowski who they didn’t have last year. They have an upgraded defense. The Dodgers’ age has begun to chip away at their offense and defense, and injuries have them playing a diminished Ohtani.

I’m not going to pretend either of these teams is a big favorite, or that this pick is certain. I’m sticking with my initial call, though, Brewers in seven. 

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