Monday, July 14, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, July 14, 2024 -- "Thinking Inside the Box, Biggest Ever Edition"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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Pirates 2, Twins 1

                  AB  R  H  BI
Pham LF            4  1  1   1 HR 


Tommy Pham’s second-inning home run was the Pirates’ 66th of the year, fewest of any team in the league, though not any kind of first-half record. Their slugging percentage of .339, though, that’s brutal. The Pirates are just the seventh team this century to reach the All-Star break slugging under .340, and they have a chance to be the lowest-power team of the century. The 2013 Marlins slugged .335, and the 2010 Mariners slugged .339; those are the only two teams since 2001 that failed to reach .340 in a full season.

I have been a defender of Ben Cherington in the past, and I still regard him as a strong baseball mind. Looking at these Pirates, though, I really have no idea what they are doing. Eight Pirates have at least 200 PA. One is 38, one is 37, one is 33. Throw in Bryan Reynolds and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and most days they play more guys in their 30s than in their 20s. What are you building with that? What does giving Adam Frazier 262 plate appearances do for you now or in the future? Andrew McCutchen is one of the great players in franchise history; he’s 38, a tick above replacement, and fourth on the team in PAs. What are we even doing here?

I posted my annual opinion about the draft last night. I think about Paul Skenes, who never had any choice but to be a Pirate. We let these teams dictate the futures of hundreds of young men, denying them any agency in what organization they wish to join. Would you let your son or daughter join the 30th-best organization in their field, or would you encourage them to choose one with a greater chance of success? Skenes deserved to pick his own future, and what the Pirates have done since selecting him without his input to join their diseased organization is one of the best arguments against sports drafts that I can muster.

I can make a similar argument about Royce Lewis, assigned to the Twins just after his 18th birthday and unlikely to be able to select his own employer until he’s 30. Lewis is a less-sympathetic character, though, part of the reason the Twins are such a disappointment this year. An offense I thought would rank seventh in baseball is instead 17th, providing most of the gap between their expected performance and their actual one. I still think they have the talent to make a second-half run. They play their last seven games against the Tigers over a two-week span in August, and that’s their chance to make a stand. 
 
 

Sunday, July 13, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, July 13, 2025 -- "Red (Hot) Sox"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $59.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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Cora is further twisting himself into knots by having Rafaela move back to second base, where he played last night. Rafaela is a top-three defensive outfielder in all of baseball...and a bad infielder. If he is in the starting lineup and not playing center field, it’s a massive error that makes the Sox less likely to win that day’s game. Rafaela’s breakout has come while playing center every day, as opposed to the hybrid CF/SS role he played a year ago. Messing with him now is just asking to reverse all the progress he has made.  
 
 

Friday, July 11, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, July 11, 2025 -- "Dodgers Good, Dodgers Bad"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $59.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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With the Dodgers, you always have to circle back to the first principle: The regular season is a 162-game extension of spring training for them. They’re not trying to win 117 games, despite my fervent hopes, just winning enough to make the playoffs, maybe get that bye. Their goal isn’t to put their best team on the field on March 27 or May 27 or even September 27, but rather to make sure that come October 4 at Dodger Stadium, they have their top 26 guys healthy, rested, and ready to win 11 games. It’s a cynical approach to a baseball season, but after years of dominating for six months and then being told they were failures because they lost three of four or four of six at the wrong time, the Dodgers finally leaned into the ethics of modern baseball. They won a title last year for their trouble and remain the favorites to do so again. 
 
 

Wednesday, July 9, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, July 9, 2025 -- "Bailey's on the move..."

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $59.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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Bailey came into last night’s game hitting .188/.255/.275, with a 51 wRC+ that was better than just three players with at least 200 PA. He’d recently spent a stint on the IL with a strained neck, and since returning had nearly twice as many strikeouts as hits in 15 games. His well-regarded framing skills were keeping his WAR above water, though even those weren’t enough to stave off some calls for him to ride the pine. One memorable walkoff doesn’t change the math; Bailey is still one of the worst hitters in baseball this year on a team that doesn’t have enough good ones to carry a total zero, no matter how well he turns balls into strikes.

 
 
 

Monday, July 7, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, July 7, 2025 -- "Long National Nightmare Ends. Maybe."

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $59.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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Long National Nightmare Ends. Maybe.

Last night, Nationals Managing Principal Owner -- I don’t make the titles, folks -- Mark Lerner fired GM Mike Rizzo and manager Dave Martinez for their failure to force Lerner to spend money on good baseball players.

Rizzo, who turned Juan Soto into a championship-caliber core making no money, was hamstrung by two generations of Lerners over the last six seasons, as ownership navigated the MASN debacle and readied itself for sale. The Nats’ cash payroll is lower this year than it was in 2014. Rizzo built the 2019 World Series champs and had a good start on building the 2029 ones. He simply wasn’t allowed to do the rest of the job. 

Martinez did the best with what he had in recent seasons, and certainly deserves some credit for the development of the young players Rizzo acquired as he tore down those ’19 champions. I saw the Nats close up a week ago in a game they lost as a succession of replacement-level pitchers came out of the bullpen in Anaheim to kill off a potential win. The first one I’d seen before, the second’s name was vaguely familiar, the third was almost certainly an AI hallucination. Nats relievers have the highest ERA and highest FIP in baseball, and only the Angels have a worse bullpen fWAR. Managers in the modern game have their greatest impact by selecting and deploying relief pitchers, so Martinez may deserve a little blame, but Tony La Russa at his peak couldn’t make a good bullpen from the guys the Nats have in hand.

The Nationals are where they are because they have bad ownership. As I have said many, many times, the Nationals lost more to the pandemic than any other team did, unable to capitalize at the gate on their championship season. The Lerners, first father then son, exacerbated that problem, forcing a rebuild, slashing payroll, and failing to let Rizzo put better-paid pieces around a very impressive group of young, inexpensive players. Firing the management team just before the draft and trade deadline is the kind of impetuous move that underlines that Mark Lerner is in over his head.

The Nationals didn’t solve any problems by firing Rizzo and Martinez. Until there is new ownership, not much is going to change in D.C.

 
 

Newsletter Excerpt, July 3, 2025 -- "Dotted"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $59.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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Clayton Kershaw would have been one of the greatest pitchers ever if he’d stopped at 2,000 strikeouts, or when his back gave out the first time, or when he won the World Series, or when he stopped being able to throw complete seasons. He didn’t need a round number to validate his greatness, and that’s not why he was out there last night. He’s a pitcher, and pitchers pitch, even when their body doesn’t want to and their heart is at home with the kids and their fastball isn’t behaving. 

Because sometimes, when it means the most, they can still dot a slider.