Friday, May 16, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, May 16, 2025 -- "The Orioles"

 

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There are some reasons to believe. Expected stats are a bit of a mess, but at least the ordering should be alright, and they show that the Orioles deserve much more from their batted balls (.245 xBA, .420 xSLG) than they have gotten (.226 and .381). On the pitching side, they’re getting a bit unlucky when their opponents get a hold of one. The average barreled baseball produces a .669 BA and a 2.211 SLG. Orioles opponents have hit .759 with a 2.634 SLG, figures that are second-highest and highest in baseball. The Orioles have also allowed a disproportionate number of their baserunners to score. This is a bad pitching staff, just maybe not as bad as it has looked.
 
 

Wednesday, May 14, 2025

Joe Sheehan Newsletter, March 18, 2015 -- "Rule 21 (d)"

 

 Bumping this in light of Tuesday's news. Subscribe for this and more. --J.

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This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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The Joe Sheehan Newsletter
Vol. 7, No. 9
March 18, 2015

On September 28, 2013, the Rangers were trying to hang on in the AL wild-card chase, and were trailing the Angels 1-0 in the bottom of the first. Ian Kinsler led off with a single, and scampered to second on a wild pitch by Garrett Richards. Rangers manager Ron Washington had Elvis Andrus, ahead in the count 2-1, lay down a sacrifice bunt that moved Kinsler to third base. It was an indefensible decision by Washington, a play that he would put on a few times a year, and it made the Rangers slightly less likely to win the game and make the postseason. To Washington, though, it was the opposite -- he believed he was pulling the lever that he gave his team the best chance to succeed.

A week later in the NL Division Series, Don Mattingly was faced with a series of choices late in Game Two with the Dodgers down 2-1 in the seventh. He ended making a notably poor decision, walking Reed Johnson intentionally so that Jason Heyward could bat with the bases loaded. Even accounting for the platoon advantage, it was an execrable call that contributed to the Dodgers losing the game (Heyward singled in two runs). Mattingly was excoriated for his tactical blunder, but even in the moment it was clear that all Mattingly wanted to do was escape the inning down 2-1 and give his team a chance to win a critical playoff game.

With the Royals charging back in the AL Central and AL wild-card races, Ned Yost was faced with a tough call in the middle of September. Up 4-3 in the sixth, Jason Vargas put the first two Red Sox on to start the inning. Yost went to his bullpen and selected Aaron Crow, probably his fifth-best right-handed reliever at that point in the season. None of Yost's dominant relievers had pitched the day before, and neither Wade Davis nor Kelvin Herrera had pitched in three days. It was a mistake at the time, and it would blow up when Daniel Nava hit a grand slam off of Crow. Yost, however, believed that sticking to his set reliever roles -- and thereby using Crow in the sixth -- was the best way for his team to win not just that game, but to make the postseason. 

In 1985, the Reds were the Dodgers' closest challenger for NL West supremacy, closing to 4 1/2 games out with a bit more than two weeks left in the season. On September 25, with the Reds six games out and running out of time, they found themselves tied with the Braves in the ninth. Rose brought in his best reliever, John Franco, in the ninth to escape a minor Braves rally, then pulled Franco one out into the tenth. It wasn't unusual for relievers, or for Franco himself, to go multiple innings back then. Nevertheless, Rose brought in Ted Power, who escaped the tenth and then allowed two runs in the 11th to lose the game. Rose no doubt believed that with Dale Murphy coming up, he wanted to get a right-hander into the game. That's the decision he felt would give the Reds the best chance to win, to stay in a division race, and to put money in his pocket.

Maybe Pete Rose bet on the Reds every night, as he now claims. Maybe he didn't, as John Dowd counters. The truth is, it doesn't matter. From Major League Rule 21, covering misconduct, section (d):

(d) BETTING ON BALL GAMES. Any player, umpire or club official or employee, who shall bet any sum whatsoever on any baseball game in connection with which the bettor has no duty to perform shall be declared ineligible for one year.

Any player, umpire or club official or employee, who shall bet any sum whatsoever upon any baseball game in connection with which the bettor has a duty to perform shall be declared permanently ineligible.

Is it possible that Pete Rose didn't know the rule?

(g) RULE TO BE KEPT POSTED. A printed copy of this Rule shall be kept posted in each clubhouse.

Pete Rose played in more baseball games than anyone ever, 3,562 of 'em. he managed another 419 after retiring as a player. That's almost 4,000 games. Let's say, just to make the math easy, that Rose left the clubhouse twice every game, once for BP and once for the game itself. That's nearly 8,000 times walking past Rule 21(d). He was as exposed to the rule as anyone who ever put on a uniform.

He bet on baseball games in which he was managing one of the teams anyway.

Rose shouldn't have his ineligibility lifted. What he did is the crime that, in professional sports, cannot be forgiven. We have to be able to watch the games any believe that every player and every manager is in it to win for the success of the team, and not because he has money riding on the outcome, because once you lose that, you question everything. Washington and Yost and Mattingly were making bad decisions, but those decisions weren't motivated by the possibility of cashing a ticket. I can't say that about Rose. Maybe he pulled Franco because he was sweating the money and didn't want to risk letting Murphy face a lefty, and didn't think about the fact that to that point, Murphy had never hit a ball out of the infield against Franco in five tries. Maybe Rose was looking ahead to the next night, the next bet, the chance to use Franco in a situation where he could protect a lead and his money, maybe even getting better odds behind Andy McGaffigan, only recently called back up from Triple-A.

When you bet on a game you can influence, you invite the maybes. The industry of professional baseball can't have maybes. That's why the penalty is permanent eligibility, and why the rule is posted in every clubhouse.

Rose's ban has to hold. It has to hold so that Rose is the example for every baseball player who walks into a clubhouse knows that 21(d) is sacrosanct, and that MLB will end you if you violate it. It shows that no one is too big to lose his baseball life over it. Rule 21(d) matters more than three strikes and you're out, three outs and inning over, nine innings and we go home. It is the rule that let's teams charge for tickets and put the games on TV and sell gear and build stadiums and know that people will show up and invest themselves in the outcomes.

Rule 21(d) is the rule that lets me call Ron Washington an idiot without ever worrying that something else is going on. Pete Rose? Pete Rose isn't half as important, a tenth as important, as Rule 21(d). Let that be his legacy.


Newsletter Excerpt, May 14, 2025 -- "The Padres"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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Based on what shows up in my inbox and text messages, I think I’ve picked up a reputation as a Padres hater. That’s not remotely accurate. It was just two seasons ago I kept hammering the point that an around-.500 Padres team was far better than its record, and I even insisted they could make the playoffs when they were well off the pace. I believed in A.J. Preller’s build that year. Last year’s team impressed me less, but it went from 2-12 in extra innings to 10-2 -- the entire difference in its ’23 and ’24 records -- and made the playoffs. Pointing that out, not buying into the narrative around the ’24 team, seems to have gotten me a label. (For whatever it’s worth, the Padres are 0-2 in extra innings this year, 8-4 in 1/x games.)

Monday, May 12, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, May 12, 2025 -- "Teams Week"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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Even at that, the internal variance of team performance is always a factor. A team projected to play .550 ball doesn’t go exactly 11-9 every 20 games. I keep hammering this point because it’s critical to not overreacting to every four-game winning or losing streak: Whatever you think the in-season variance of a team’s performance is, it’s higher than that. The Angels started the season 9-5, then went 9-18. The Braves followed up 5-13 with 14-8. Last year, the 121-loss White Sox had a stretch in which they won eight of 12. Back in 2023, the A’s were 12-50 when they ripped off a seven-game winning streak that included a sweep in Milwaukee over the playoff-bound Brewers. 
 
 

Friday, May 9, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, May 9, 2025 -- "Potpourri"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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Leaving aside his affinities, there’s something about a Pope who likes baseball that brings me joy. Popes, for all my life (and at that, all the Church’s life), have been these distant, foreign figures, and now we have one who remembers Ozzie Guillen calling in Bobby Jenks from the pen, and DeWayne Wise making that catch, and perhaps even this, somewhat lesser, night at the ballpark. Maybe he’s not one of us seamheads, wondering what happened to Colson Montgomery or hankering for news that Jerry Reinsdorf will sell the team, but he’s one of us, a baseball fan, a Pope who’s been to the yard, had a dog, sung “Take Me Out to the Ballgame.”
 
 

Wednesday, May 7, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, May 7, 2025 -- "Kind of a Drag"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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A well-struck batted ball in 2025 is flying, on average, about five feet less than it did in 2023. It’s flying more than ten feet less than it did in 2019. It’s the lowest-fly baseball in the decade-long history of tracking. These are enormous differences, especially in a sport where power has become the most reliable, often the only reliable, means of scoring runs.