Newsletter Excerpt, October 16, 2025 -- "Blowout"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card. This is the best time to become a Newsletter subscriber -- playoff coverage has been where it shines for 15 years!

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It’s fair to say things have changed. Through eight playoff games, Dodgers starters have thrown nearly as many innings -- 52 2/3 -- as they did during last year’s entire run. They’ve thrown 71% of the team’s innings as a whole, a percentage that didn’t seem possible in modern baseball. It’s actually more extreme than that because the Dodgers ended the year with a six-man rotation and a bad bullpen. Of their 74 innings pitched, just 8 1/3 have been thrown by true relievers. Roki Sasaki, Emmet Sheehan, Clayton Kershaw, and Glasnow, all starting pitchers in 2025, have thrown 13 innings out of the pen. 

The quality of those innings has been exceptional: a 1.54 ERA, a 63/13 K/BB, a 32% strikeout rate. Seven of the Dodgers’ eight starts have been quality starts -- at least six innings, no more than three earned runs. In the entire 2024 postseason, there were just 18 quality starts by all pitchers. The Dodgers, with seven, already are tied for the most postseason quality starts of any team since 2019 (Nationals, 9), and are likely to have the most since the Tigers had ten in 2013.  

 

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, October 15. 2025 -- "Postseason 2025: Mailbag"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card. This is the best time to become a Newsletter subscriber -- playoff coverage has been where it shines for 15 years!

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Regarding manager walks to load the bases...I'm with you that when there are two outs you're comparing batting averages to on-base percentages. The calculation is different with one out, like it was in the 15th last night. Julio Rodriguez didn't need a hit to score a run, he pretty much just needed good contact. Jorge Polanco didn't need to get on base, he needed contact without a double play. 

-- Donald W.

I found nine intentional walks that fit the description: second and third, one out, tied game, seventh inning or later. The Win Probability Added was -0.01 in seven cases, 0.00 in the other two. In the abstract, it’s a neutral decision, ever so slightly negative.

Whether you’re getting the platoon advantage or not, and the gap between the hitter you’re walking and the one you’re facing, are huge factors in the decision, so take the general with a grain of salt. I am certain, though, that the value to a pitcher in pitching with a base open versus not, independent of the AVG/OBP issue, is significant and pushes the decision over.

Yes, if you’re facing a team managed by Mike Shildt and he’s taken Albert Pujols out of the game and your choice is facing Matt Carpenter or a pitcher, put up four fingers. For most reasonable situations, you’re better off giving your pitcher flexibility and taking “the pitcher has to throw strikes” away from the hitter.

--J. 

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, October 14, 2025 -- "Postseason 2025: Thinking Inside the Box"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card. This is the best time to become a Newsletter subscriber -- playoff coverage has been where it shines for 15 years!

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I can hold two positions at once. One, Roki Sasaki isn’t quite the golden god he looked like last week, and two, I’d let Roki Sasaki fresh off a dizzy-bat race pitch in max leverage before I’d give the ball to Blake Treinen. Roberts, who has regressed to his big-mistake days of the 2010s, got away with one last night. If seeing Treinen get a 27th out makes him more likely to ask Treinen to get another one, the Brewers will probably steal a game back because of that.

Newsletter Excerpt, October 13, 2025 -- "Postseason 2025: NLCS Preview"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card. This is the best time to become a Newsletter subscriber -- playoff coverage has been where it shines for 15 years!

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The Brewers do run the bases aggressively, and that makes for an interesting battle. Andy Pages, who will start in center every day, has one of the best arms in baseball. Alex Call and Teoscar Hernandez are not far behind him. At the other end of the spectrum, Tommy Edman and Enrique Hernandez don’t throw well at all. Given how little the latter two bring to the table, I’d like to see Call get more playing time, as his defense -- he’s a fringy center fielder and good on the corners -- could have a lot of value in keeping the Brewers from running wild. No team scored from second on a single more than the Brewers did. No team was within 20 runs of them.  

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, October 13, 2025 -- "Postseason 2025: Miller Time in Labatt’s Land"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card. This is the best time to become a Newsletter subscriber -- playoff coverage has been where it shines for 15 years!

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Even in winning, Miller’s box score line wasn’t that impressive: three walks and three strikeouts in those six frames. Watching the game, though, you could see him executing a plan. Miller’s four-seam fastball has a lot of what your grandma would have called “rise,” followed by someone like me wagging their finger and saying “you can’t make a baseball rise, old lady.” What you can do, though, is make it drop less than a ball thrown overhand from a mound 60 feet away should. This illusion of rise is now called “induced vertical break.” A good IVB on a fastball is 17 inches. Miller’s last night averaged 18 inches and touched 20, which is elite. As was your grandma. 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, October 12, 2025 -- "Postseason 2025: ALCS Preview"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card. This is the best time to become a Newsletter subscriber -- playoff coverage has been where it shines for 15 years!

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At the start of the playoffs, I had the Mariners winning the AL pennant. One of the hardest things about covering the postseason is not overweighting the thing you just saw. The Blue Jays erased a team that was of 100-win quality by underlying metrics, while the Mariners struggled to put away one that squeaked into the playoffs and was the worst of the eight left in the tournament. That’s additional information; it’s just important to remember all the information that was already there. I think the Mariners will be able to hold down the Jays with their right-handed pitching -- or maybe just the absence of lefties -- and revert to their in-season home-run rate against the Jays’ staff. At least one of these games will turn on the Jays’ pen, which is its weakest unit. Mariners in five.