Newsletter Excerpt, April 25, 2025 -- "Mailbag"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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For heavens’ sake, please tell us what the hell is wrong with Julio Rodriguez?

-- Ed Q.

I get the frustration, but this is actually one of the best starts of Rodriguez’s career. A 110 OPS+ is way ahead of where he was in 2022 and 2024 at this point, and not far from where he was in 2023. The process stats are within his normal range, his average exit velocity and max EV are as well. He’s getting murdered on balls in play, a .246 BABIP that’s 90 points off his career level. Per Statcast he’s missing 40 points of BA and 65 points of SLG. so this really looks like a guy hitting into bad luck.

There’s a disconnect between his swing-and-miss rate, which is one of the worst in the game, and his strikeout rate, which has actually gone down slightly. He’s swinging through a lot of strikes, more than ever before. I’m loath to dig too deep into this on April 24, to be honest — it’s just something to keep an eye on. 

--J.

 

 

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, April 24, 2025 -- "Potpourri"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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The Orioles’ pitching investments this winter were one-year deals for a total of $28 million for Tomoyuki Sagano and Charlie Morton. Morton has the highest ERA of any starter, 10.89; Sugano actually has a 3.54 mark in five starts, but it’s a mirage. He’s struck out nine of 113 batters and comes with a 5.81 FIP. Just one starting pitcher in the last 18 seasons has managed to be worth even one bWAR with a sub-10% strikeout rate: Paul Blackburn in 2017. Set the line at 12%, and you can find some examples starting in 2017 -- Ty Blach in ’17, Martin Perez in ’16, some more in 2015. In 2025, though, it’s just not possible to survive this way.

 

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, April 22, 2025 -- "Tottering Twins"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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The Twins had a notable late-season collapse, didn’t do anything to improve a .500 team or get the fans invested, and are starting this year injured and playing in football weather. I expect the offense to be better and the team to convert more winnable games into wins. Lopez and Wallner will return, and probably Lewis too for a little while. We’ve seen the Twins promote Luke Keaschall and they have promising hitters behind him in Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins. Homegrown talent isn’t going to be the problem. The schedule presents a gift this week, six home games with the White Sox and Angels that will go a long way to getting the Twins on track.

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, April 18, 2025 -- "Third Base Stathead"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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Third-base coaches, more than anyone else on the field at a given moment, have to be statheads. Beasley made his choice to send Higashioka based on the relative positions of the baseball, Trout, and Higashioka. He made his choice the way third-base coaches have long made those choices, considering the outfielder’s arm and the runner’s speed, perhaps with some vague, instinctive notion of game state baked in. That’s not good enough. Every single decision a third-base coach makes absolutely has to be informed by run expectation charts and game state. Beasley, more than any player and even more than Bruce Bochy, has to understand the risk-reward, the actual math, behind his choice. He needs to consider not just the physical aspects, the ball and the fielder and the runner, but take into account who is coming up next. 

 

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, April 14, 2025 -- "Cubs Getting Dubs"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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A team can carry one guy like this. The Cubs also have Matt Shaw, the well-regarded prospect who is off to a .164/.292/.236 start. Shaw is handling the transition to third base reasonably well; he’s just not doing anything at the plate. With Turner and Workman not playing any better, though, Craig Counsell has to stick with Shaw. To Shaw’s credit, he has drawn ten walks against just 17 strikeouts, and he is pulling the ball in the air (24% of his batted balls, well above the league average), both signs of good process. Despite recent events, I am more confident in Shaw’s next 24 weeks than I am in PCA’s.

 

Newsletter Excerpt, April 9, 2025 -- "Hits"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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The sport of baseball is in desperate need of more hits, though. The league is hitting .238 in the early going, and let’s go out on a limb and suggest that while that number will rise with the temperature, it’s in no danger of climbing above .250 no matter how many games the A’s play in Sacramento or what weird bats the Yankees bring to the plate. If so, this would the the fifth straight season in which the league batting average is under .250. (Actually the sixth, but 2020 never counts.) It would be the third time that’s ever happened.