Joe Sheehan Newsletter

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The Brewers won the AL Central by five games. When you look under the hood, though. this series is evenly matched. The teams were both 96-66 by third-order record, both 95-67 by BaseRuns. They play strong defense behind good, not great, pitching. The difference is in how they score, which I think will make the difference here. The Cubs are just a terrible matchup for what the Brewers do, and I think they’ll choke off just enough runs to win a great series. Cubs in five.

That last part sways me. We really have two true coin flips in this round, but the downgrade from Smith to Rortvedt and Dalton Rushing is so large it will show up even in a best-of-five. If Smith pulls a Willis Reed, I’ll wear it, but for now, Phillies in five.

I have had my doubts about the Blue Jays all season long, and they held on to win the AL East, so take the following with more than the usual grain of salt. I look at third-order record, look at BaseRuns, look at the current rosters, and don’t see this series going back to Toronto. Yankees in four.

The Mariners were three games better than the Tigers in the standings, three games better by BaseRuns, four by third-order record. The team they go to war with isn’t quite that good, down Woo and potentially down Josh Naylor, expecting his first child, for a game. The Ms are going to get just one start from their best pitcher, too. Still, this is a team with two of the best players in the AL, with maybe four relievers I’d take over any Tigers reliever, with a week to get everyone rested. I’m still going with Mariners in three, though I feel a bit more queasy about it than I did yesterday.

Tuesday felt like a fairly normal day of playoff baseball, something from the 2000s. Starting pitchers averaged about six innings a start, five of them threw at least six innings, a couple pitched into the eighth. Wednesday, the second day of the monthlong postseason, reverted to hair-on-fire baseball: One team used an opener, and just two of the eight starting pitchers got through the fifth. Dylan Cease was pulled with 3 2/3 shutout innings, five strikeouts and no walks allowed.

I genuinely think this is a bad playoff format, and not just because of its effects on the regular season. The rhythm of it is all off. We start at 11 and have no place to go from there. Baseball just isn’t a game designed to be played at 11 for a month. These best-of-threes inject a sense of desperation before everyone has settled into their seats. exacerbated by the fact that few teams have even three starters they’re willing to trust for six innings any more. The playoffs should build towards the World Series, and now by the World Series everyone is exhausted and out of pitching.

This format works for a lot of people, and I admit that 12 hours of playoff baseball can be a lot of fun. We’ll get eight hours of elimination games today and then another quadrupleheader Saturday, maybe one more next week. If you’re into it, be into it. For me, though, it has a dessert-before-dinner feel. I know a sugar crash is coming.

Dodgers/Reds

I’d pegged the Reds as an upset candidate based on their pitching. Well, Hunter Greene allowed five runs in three innings, Andrew Abbott never got into a game, and Nick Lodolo pitched to seven batters in middle relief.

The Reds were probably done once Shohei Ohtani took Greene deep in the first inning Tuesday night, though a couple of early runs off Yoshinobu Yamamoto last night provided hope. Down 3-2 in the sixth, they became the latest playoff team to load the bases with nobody out and not score, which sealed their fate. A one-hop liner to Mookie Betts, who had been playing back for a double play and conceding the tying run, froze T.J. Friedl at third and allowed Betts to get the run-saving force at home. Yamamoto struck out the next two hitters, and the series was effectively over.

The Reds had to play almost perfectly to garner the upset, and instead they allowed 18 runs, building deficits that even the Dodgers bullpen (five IP, five runs allowed) could not overcome. The story for the Dodgers coming out of this series is that bullpen. The struggles from September have followed them into October. If you’re a Dodger fan looking for hope, look to Roki Sasaki, who threw a 1-2-3 ninth on 11 pitches and looked unhittable. Last year’s second-most-prized free agent may be ready to contribute out of the pen after a lost season.

Guardians/Tigers

Ball go far....

George Valera, Brayan Rocchio, and Bo Naylor hit homers that accounted for five of the Guardians’ six runs, four of them in the eighth, as the team pushed their Wild Card Series to a third game. I’d mentioned that it’s not necessarily about being a power-hitting team so much as having power show up in the playoffs. Those three combined for 23 home runs at all levels this year, but for one afternoon at the Jake, they were the Killer Gs.

One play in this game generated most of the discussion on Slack. In the top of the fourth, the Tigers had the bases loaded with two outs. Javier Baez grounded a single up the middle, driving in Riley Greene and appearing to drive in Dillon Dingler from second. Zach McKinstry tried to go first to third, and after being ruled safe initially, was called out after a replay challenge. The out at third erased Dingler’s run, as the catcher had not scored before the out was made. This kept the game tied at 1-1, and ended the Tigers’ scoring on the day.

Let’s start here: I don’t think the replays at all made the case to overturn the call on the field. I would like a replay system that ignores the call on the field and makes a decision based solely on the field. The system we have privileges the call on the field and requires that video evidence clearly show that it was the wrong call. In this case, I was never convinced that McKinstry’s right hand, as he dove into the base, wasn’t in contact with the bag. I think this reversal was a mistake in contravention of the replay rules, another in an ongoing string of replay decisions that don’t seem to make sense.

Let’s set that aside, though, and talk about why McKinstry was at risk, the decision that caused so much consternation. By trying to take the extra base, McKinstry was chancing the third out at third base, usually a no-no and one of the things on which traditionalists and statheads agree. In this case, though, McKinstry running is fairly standard; you’re trying to draw a throw at third to protect the runner scoring. The ball was hit to left-center, not directly at an outfielder, so it wouldn’t be a simple catch-and-throw. McKinstry, with the bases loaded, had a big secondary lead as well.

This is how the Tigers have played ball all year. As I wrote Monday, there were the only team in baseball to take an extra base on a hit more than half the time. They led all of baseball, and not by a little bit, in times going first to third. McKinstry himself had the highest rate of bases taken on hits in the entire sport.

They also led all of baseball in baserunning outs, which is going to happen when you play this way. McKinstry going first to third didn’t even register for me as a questionable decision. It’s how he plays, it’s how the Tigers play. With two outs and the bases loaded he had a big jump. Big picture, you’d want him running to protect Dingler. Everything about this decision was fine, and he just got beat -- maybe -- by a good throw from Chase DeLauter.

My issue instead is with Dillon Dingler, who had the same edge McKinstry did, with a big secondary lead at second. He’s not fast, but he should have been able to score on this hit before the play at third. An ESPN replay showed him slowing up on his way home, not out of sloth but to watch the play unfold behind him. There is absolutely no reason for Dingler to be looking backward in that spot. He should be running home and picking up a teammate behind the plate signaling him whether to run through the plate or slide. It was Dingler looking back for no good reason that cost the Tigers the second run.

The Tigers compounded the error by squandering a week’s worth of scoring opportunities. The Baez single? It was the team’s only hit with a runner in scoring position on a day they went 1-for-15 in those spots. They stranded 15 baserunners. They had first and second with nobody out and 3-4-5 up in the first and didn’t score. They had first and third with nobody out and 4-5-6 up in the seventh and didn’t score. The Tigers put at least two runners on in six of the nine innings yesterday and scored in one of them. No team in playoff history had ever sent 43 batters to the plate while scoring just one run. Just one team, the 2009 Dodgers, ever left more runners on base in a playoff game. Even more than the Dingler play, that is why they lost.

These two teams play their ninth game against each other in 17 days today, one that decides who advances to play the Mariners in the ALDS. My guess is we won’t see many runs or hard-hit balls. Jack Flaherty goes for the Tigers, Slade Cecconi for the Guardians, and I doubt they combine for nine innings. The Guardians’ A bullpen has been worked hard, though. Cade Smith threw 31 pitches yesterday on top of 19 on Tuesday and I doubt he has much left. Hunter Gaddis has gone 20/19, and Erik Sabrowski also pitched both days. The Tigers, on the other hand, haven’t used anyone both days, and only Tyler Holton went more than 20 pitches Wednesday.

Cubs/Padres

Mike Shildt managed yesterday’s game as if we were responding to criticism of his approach in Game One, and in fact his entire playoff career. He pinch-hit for Gavin Sheets to gain a platoon advantage in the fourth, and lifted Dylan Cease -- who had thrown 3 2/3 shutout innings with five strikeouts and no walks -- shortly thereafter. It all worked. Getting the game to his bullpen produced 5 1/3 shutout innings in a 3-0 win that kept the Padres alive.

I am reluctant to criticize a manager who approaches an elimination game with that kind of urgency when I’ve spent 30 years demanding they do so. With that said, it’s the decision to lift Cease that underlines the point I made above. If a manager is taking out his #2 starter, a guy throwing a shutout through 3 2/3 innings with a 5/0 K/BB, in the second game of the playoffs, where do we go from there? Hell, Shildt issued a silly intentional walk to Carson Kelly just so he could lift Cease and set up a matchup he liked better, Adrian Morejon against Pete Crow-Armstrong. (Crow-Armstrong is a platoon player and Craig Counsell has to start batting for him in leverage spots against lefties.)

The gambit worked. A.J. Preller built a sick bullpen for Shildt, and even with Jason Adam out for the season, it’s the team’s best unit. Two fifth-inning homers by the Cubs prevented Shildt from being able to activate it with a lead in the first game, and he wasn’t going to let that happen again.

Shildt’s aggressiveness stands in contrast to Counsell’s path through the game, which you can defend at each decision point, but which doesn’t stick together as a whole. Counsell used an opener, Andrew Kittredge, to start the game, so as to keep Shota Imanaga away from the right-handed power atop the Padres’ lineup. After Kittredge allowed hits to two of the game’s first three batters, Counsell left him in to face Jackson Merrill, who drove in a run with a sac fly.

In the fifth, still down 1-0, Counsell let Imanaga face the top of the order, and in fact had Imanaga pitch to Manny Machado with first base open and two men out. Machado punished that choice with a two-run homer that just about ended the game.

Now. I didn’t think that was such a bad decision at the time. The point of the opener gambit is to keep Imanaga from facing the top of the lineup a third time. He’s supposed to be able to go longer into the game because he’s delaying a third trip through the top of the order. Where letting him face those guys in the fifth loses me is when I see how Counsell handled the latter part of the game, playing matchup ball over the final four innings, making mid-inning pitching changes to keep the platoon advantage down 3-0. If it’s important that Fernando Tatis Jr. and Machado not face a lefty in the seventh or the ninth, it seems it should have been important in the fifth.

It was just an odd path through the game. Counsell’s prioritizing the platoon advantage, which he did in lower-leverage spots, might have served him well in the game’s decisive matchup.

The bill for Shildt’s aggressive approach yesterday may come due today. He’ll send Yu Darvish to the mound off the righty’s worst season, a 5.38 ERA and 4.82 FIP in 15 starts. He’s a five-inning pitcher these days, and the Padres need more than that. Morejon went 33 pitches on a second day and is probably out. Mason Miller got five outs on 27 of the filthiest pitches you’ll ever see, working his second straight day. I wouldn’t rule him out, but if you use him, you’re taking a risk. I would expect Robert Suarez, who got four outs on 18 pitches yesterday, to be asked to get six outs in most game scripts. Jeremiah Estrada and Wandy Peralta could combine for nine outs off a day’s rest. For the Cubs, who start their #4 in Jameson Taillon, only Kittredge (14/20) is unlikely to be used.

I want to see whether Shildt attacks PCA again with his two remaining lefties, and how Counsell responds. Crow-Armstrong has a career .233 OBP against southpaws with a 79/7 K/BB and far more strikeouts (79) than hits (54). He’s just an out against southpaws, and Counsell is going to need more than that in some big spot in today’s game.

Yankees/Red Sox

From Wednesday:

The Sox, in fact, are carrying more left-handed pitchers (seven) than right-handed ones (five), which I can’t remember seeing in quite some time.
In that context, the way the Red Sox lost last night is inexcusable. With Aroldis Chapman, Peyton Tolle, and Kyle Harrison all available, Alex Cora instead chose to lose the game with Garrett Whitlock facing a pair of left-handed batters. At 25 pitches, Whitlock walked Jazz Chisholm Jr. on six more, running his count to 31 with Austin Wells coming to the plate. It wasn’t an unreasonable number, nor a terrible choice to let Whitlock pitch to left-handed batters. Whitlock’s usage, though, had changed sharply over the course of the season, from a multi-inning reliever to a one-inning one. Whitlock had not thrown even 25 pitches in a game since June 23. He’d worked deep to Chisholm and to Ben Rice, and was avoiding throwing fastballs as he walked Chisholm. All signs were flashing red.

As we also discussed yesterday, the Yankees have no good counter for left-handed relief pitching. It’s possible that had Cora brought in a lefty that Aaron Boone would have countered with Paul Goldschmidt, but even then Goldschmidt is more an OBP threat than a power one these days. A tiring Whitlock versus Wells isn’t as good for Cora as any matchup he might have taken on with a pitching change. Cora seemed reluctant to use Chapman in the eighth after getting four outs from him Tuesday, but even Tolle, who eventually mopped up, would have been a better choice.

For the third time in four hitters, Whitlock went to a full count, and for the second straight hitter, he didn’t throw a fastball. On the seventh pitch of the at-bat, Whitlock’s 38th of the game, Wells pulled a change-up down the right-field line. It might not have scored Chisholm from first, but between Chisholm running on 3-2 and the ball catching the wall before it reached Nate Eaton, Chisholm scored the winning run easily.

One of Cora’s biggest advantages in this series is being able to shove lefties at the Yankees all night long. He picked a terrible time to decline that advantage, and it cost him the game.

The Sox did not play well leading up to that fateful eighth. Jarren Duran dropped a fly ball off the bat of Aaron Judge in the fifth that allowed a go-ahead run to score. It was a a difficult play, Duran having to charge hard from left-center on a softly-hit ball, but he got there and it hit him in the glove. Two innings later, the Sox had first and second with nobody out and failed to score. Ceddanne Rafaela made a terrible attempt at a sac bunt, popping it up. With two outs, Masataka Yoshida reached on an infield single and the throw eluded Ben Rice at first, but Nate Eaton failed to score. That’s a spot where the third-base coach has to be waving the runner on second aggressively, to make the other team make a play. You can always hold up the runner if Chisholm and Rice -- an inexperienced first baseman -- don’t make any mistakes. You want to put Rice in a spot where he has to throw the ball, either home for a play on the runner or to third to catch him making a wide turn. As with the Dillon Dingler play in Cleveland, a lack of aggressiveness was costly.

The Red Sox and Yankees play the deciding game behind two pitchers with a combined 18 MLB starts. Cam Schlittler earned his start by posting a 2.96 ERA and 3.74 FIP after Clarke Schmidt’s injury opened a spot in the rotation. Connelly Early is getting this opportunity because Lucas Giolito has hurt his elbow, perhaps badly. Early made his MLB debut 24 days ago, and now he carries the Red Sox season to the mound with him. He was legitimately dominant in four starts, posting a 37% strikeout rate, a 29/4 K/BB, and a 0.91 FIP. He sits 94 with his four-seamer, 93 with his sinker, and shows a five-pitch mix with an occasional sweeper as a sixth offering. Early allowed just two barrels on 45 batted balls.

Whitlock won’t be available tonight behind Early, but Chapman will, with a day of rest. Steven Matz and Justin Wilson each went more than 20 pitches tonight, which won’t keep them from today’s game. With Whitlock out, I expect we’ll see Greg Weissert for multiple innings tonight. The Yankees have worked their A bullpen hard, with David Bednar, Devin Williams, and Francisco Cruz pitching in both games. All will be available, but none of them is used to working a third straight day. Will Warren could be tabbed early, and this may be where Mark Leiter Jr. is asked to get some big outs. I am not sure either team has an advantage in the late innings, but I’d lean to the Sox because of Chapman being rested.

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Selfishly, I’d have preferred four sweeps and plenty of time to set up for the next round. As it stands, though, we get three double-elimination games between teams that have played nothing but close games in their series to date. The only thing that would surprise me is a series of blowouts. I think we are in for a very good day of ball.

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