The Joe Sheehan Newsletter
Season Preview 2026: Teams #24-22
March 23, 2026
In this edition we finally get past the eight teams that won’t be a factor in 2026, and we reach a team that can at least dream of contending this summer -- one that other people are higher on than I am.
24. Miami Marlins (73-89, fifth in NL East, 670 runs scored, 750 runs allowed).
The Marlins were one of the flukiest teams in the NL last year, going 79-83 while being outscored by 89 runs. Clay Davenport had them as a 75-87 team, and that was my baseline for their 2026 projection. They offloaded Edward Cabrera, swapped out the injured Ronny Henriquez for Pete Fairbanks, added some legitimate power in Owen Caissie, and expect to bring back a lot of injured pitchers. It nets out as a small minus for me, in part because I see them selling at this year’s deadline, which should drag them down a bit in August and September.
The real work is being done away from LoanDepot Park, where an organization that hasn’t been effective at developing players is finally getting everyone on the same page. Peter Bendix and Rachel Balkovec are establishing processes and an ethos throughout the system with an eye towards building the kind of modern player development program maintained by their former employers, the Rays and Yankees. The Marlins still have an ownership group weighed down by debt, one that won’t support MLB-caliber payrolls for some time, but there’s now a chance they can play the game the way the Rays, Guardians, and Brewers do...for better and for worse.
In the short term, this is a team that can pick it a bit, especially when utilityman Javier Sanoja is on the field. They’re plus defensively up the middle save for catcher, where Agustin Ramirez will get one more chance to prove he can play there before prospect Joe Mack pushes him to first base or DH. That defense backs up a staff that goes about seven deep, maybe eight when Braxton Garrett bumps a starter in May. The bullpen, bolstered by Fairbanks, falls off after the top two or three guys. Maybe lefties Thomas White and Robby Snelling get in the rotation mix by midseason and the run prevention ends up better than expected.
They’re just not going to hit enough to support it. There isn’t enough OBP or power here, even if Caissie and Ramirez play well. No one here is likely to run a 120 wRC+ in 2026, and maybe two or three guys will reach a .330 OBP. A year from now, we can get excited about the Marlins in an aging NL East, but this season they’re consolidating last year’s gains.
Upside: They are aggressive about getting the dead weight out of the rotation, allow just 720 runs, and push towards .500, finishing 80-82.
Downside: Kyle Stowers’s injury, which will keep him out most of April, is the first of many blows, the offense collapses, and they are done by June 1 on the way to 66-96.
Modest Proposal: The Marlins have finished in the bottom three of tickets sold in every season since 2018. The World Baseball Classic showed that there are some baseball fans in Miami, so maybe it’s time to start just giving tickets away and see if you can’t create a baseball-going habit in a generation that is too young to remember the way two championship rosters were torn apart out of spite. It’s an extreme measure that can potentially alienate the remaining ticket buyers, but maybe that’s what it takes to save this franchise.
23. Minnesota Twins (75-87, fourth in AL Central, 683 runs scored, 731 runs allowed).
It seems I go into every season now writing about how the Minnesota Twins have stopped trying to compete. They made some low-impact signings, adding Josh Bell, Victor Caratini, and Taylor Rogers for $23 million total, $13 million in 2026 cash. That pushed their cash payroll into nine figures, projected as their lowest outlay since 2017. It’s not enough to contend in an improving AL Central.
Any chance the Twins had to step forward this year was cut short when Pablo Lopez tore his right UCL, ending his season. Lopez, when healthy, had ace upside, and while the Twins can replace his starts and innings -- heck, Zebby Matthews didn’t even crack the rotation -- they can’t fill that hole atop the rotation. Joe Ryan, who comes with health concerns himself, is now the nominal #1. The rotation, with trade pickups Taj Bradley and Mick Abel getting good buzz this spring, is still the team’s strong suit.
The problem is the lineup, which includes the mediocre Bell (.245/.323/.413, 103 OPS+ since 2023) in the cleanup spot and a number of homegrown Twins who have never quite gotten over the hump, including Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, and Brooks Lee, filling out the lineup. The Twins are two bats short, the kind of bats you can acquire if you are willing to pay for them. The Twins don’t do that anymore.
The bright side is that as that generation of homegrown hitters ages into DFALand and Tradeville, the next is on its way. Outfielders Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins should make their MLB debuts this season, and 2024 first-rounder Kaelen Culpepper won’t be far behind them in 2027. The Twins are heading into a transition that should produce a very good core as soon as ’27 or ’28. The Pohlad family, or whoever succeeds them, has to be willing to support that core with money so the Twins don’t become the 2010s Pirates or Rays.
Upside: I typically overrate the Twins, so I’ll cautiously note that they have enough of a starting rotation to be competitive and a bunch of hitters I have praised in the past. They could get to 83-79 if they keep the team together.
Downside: With Byron Buxton losing a step in his early 30s, the Twins may not have a single plus defender in the lineup most days, and they could be awful on the corners. That opens the door to allowing 800 runs and a last-place finish at 65-97.
Modest Proposal: The Twins, to their credit, held on to Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan rather than go into a sell-off. They rolled craps on that choice when Lopez blew out his UCL. With Lopez out for ’26 and limited in ’27, the Twins will find it hard to contend. They should put Ryan, controlled through 2027, on the market now and take advantage of the sellers’ market for pitching.
This is where I draw the line between teams that can make real noise this year and teams that cannot. The Twins fell under the line when Lopez was lost for the season. The A’s and the Marlins have their backers; they just don’t include me. If any team up to now makes a playoff run, I’ll be surprised. Every team from here on in can be considered a wild-card contender or better.
22. Pittsburgh Pirates (77-85, fourth in NL Central, 608 runs scored, 637 runs allowed).
I have the Pirates scoring the fewest runs in MLB, though a couple of teams have worse offenses once you factor in park effects. This earned me some pushback last week.
First, let’s note that 608 runs scored would be a 25-run jump from last year, which isn’t nothing. The Pirates traded for Brandon Lowe, who should improve on a lot of bad infield at-bats from ’25. They signed Ryan O’Hearn and Marcell Ozuna, and I don’t see either moving the needle much. They’re at ages where decline is more likely than holding steady -- Ozuna actually collapsed during the 2025 season in Atlanta -- and neither has much power left to lose. The two of them step in for Andrew McCutchen and Tommy Pham, a thousand PA of a 95 OPS+, and I just do not see O’Hearn and Ozuna being that much of an improvement.
Oneil Cruz probably bounces back a little bit. A full season of Spencer Horwitz helps. Maybe Nick Gonzales edges up towards average. Overall, though, I expect this to once again be a bad offense. They needed to do better this winter than O’Hearn and Ozuna.
The frustrating part is that it wouldn’t take much offense to push the Pirates into the playoffs. I also have them allowing the fewest runs in the game, and again, that’s more like a top-five run prevention team once we consider the ballpark and schedule. Paul Skenes, Bubba Chandler, Braxton Ashcraft, Mitch Keller, and Carmen Mlodzinski -- successfully moving to the rotation from the pen -- will be one of the best rotations in the NL. Jared Jones should make 15-18 starts beginning in June. The bullpen doesn’t rise to that level, but the Bucs have had some success creating relievers in recent years, so maybe Yohan Ramirez or personal favorite Mason Montgomery takes a step forward the way Isaac Mattson did in ’25 and Dennis Santana did in ’24.
Upside: The playoffs. The Pirates just need to find enough runs -- a Bryan Reynolds bounceback, a Cruz breakout, a writer being wrong about some thirtysomething bats -- to support a strong rotation to 84-78 and a wild-card berth.
Downside: I’ve projected them pretty close to the bottom of their range, barring a Skenes injury or similar disaster. They likely won’t be worse than 75-87 short of hitting an iceberg.
Modest Proposal: Don Kelly seems committed to Oneil Cruz in the leadoff spot, which is a clear mistake. Cruz is a low-OBP, high-power hitter with enough speed to stay out of double plays. The Pirates are so left-handed that building a lineup is a challenge, but both O’Hearn and Horwitz, OBP- and walks-forward hitters, are much better fits atop the lineup.
