Monday, August 24, 2026

Newsletter Excerpt, August 24, 2026 -- "Nine"

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The Phillies lost eight of nine at the end of July and 15 of 25 coming out of the All-Star break. They were briefly clinging to a tie for the third wild-card slot with the Diamondbacks. The schedule, though, turned kind, coughing up three fringe contenders in the Twins, Marlins, and Cardinals. The Phillies’ hitters took advantage. They’ve scored at least four runs in every game of the streak, and at least six runs in eight of the nine games. They’ve stolen a few games along the way; a week ago Sunday, they trailed the Twins 5-0 after five innings, only to win 7-5. They were down 3-1 to the Marlins Tuesday in an eventual 6-4 win. Two of the three wins over the Cards were of the comeback variety.

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Saturday, August 22, 2026

Newsletter Excerpt, August 22, 2026 -- "History in Sacramento?"

 

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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Assuming no rainouts, the A’s would have to lose 28 of their last 33 games to have the worst second-half record ever at 13-53 (.1969). Remember that teams play fewer second-half games than they used to, due to schedule changes brought about by expanded playoffs. That sounds like a big lift, but remember that this team just lost 42 of 53 with Soderstrom, Wilson, and Kurtz for some of those games.

Let’s broaden the definition of “half” to the correct version, which will please Ben Lindbergh. These are the worst teams in baseball over the final 81 games of a full season, since 1961, when the schedule went to 162 games in the AL (it would go to 162 games in the NL in 1962).

Collapse (worst last-81 winning percentage, since 1961)

Mets         1962   17  63   .213
White Sox    2024   20  61   .247
Tigers       2019   20  61   .247
Astros       2013   21  60   .263
Mets         1965   21  59   .263

*some percentages are off because of ties

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Thursday, August 20, 2026

Newsletter Excerpt, August 20, 2026 -- "Mailbag"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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You recently wrote that the Brewers have a zero at DH and yeah, Christian Yelich has an 88 wRC+ and a negative WAR.

What will the Brewers do with DH and Yelich for the stretch run? What should they do? And what will/should they do for the postseason?

-- Mike C.

I think they may be stuck for the moment, as none of the young hitters they’ve pushed forward this year have out-hit Yelich. Even when Sal Frelick returns, he probably squeezes Luis Lara, and Lara has the same 89 OPS+ Yelich does.

The options for bumping Yelich are two right-handed batters in Andrew Vaughn and Gary Sanchez. Sanchez doesn’t hit righties well enough to bother. Vaughn is interesting because if Jake Bauers is going to be an everyday, every-inning player -- Pat Murphy hasn’t pinch-hit for him in almost a month -- you don’t need to hold out Vaughn as a platoon option for him. Like Sanchez, though, he has a big platoon split, and there’s some tactical value in having Vaughn as an option off the bench to hit for Frelick, Mitchell, or Yelich when a lefty reliever comes in.

There’s some realpolitik here, too. If Yelich isn’t going to at least be the platoon DH, he’s basically not worth the roster spot. He’s played 11 innings in the field this year. I guess he could hit for Joey Ortiz or Sanchez against righty relievers, maybe pinch-run for William Contreras, but there are just not a lot of ways to use him once you decide he’s not starting. 

I could see Jeferson Quero or Bo Naylor on a playoff roster, freeing up Sanchez for DH. There’s a fringe idea that Naylor, raking at Nashville, shows up in September and forces a decision on Yelich. We’re probably too late in the year for Blake Burke to insert himself into the picture, especially since he’s off to a slow start at Nashville, but I figured I’d mention him.

So yeah, it’s a tough spot, but with no hitters putting much pressure on Yelich, I think you are stuck with him in a platoon role. 

--J.
 
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Wednesday, August 19, 2026

Newsletter Excerpt, August 19, 2026 -- "Pete Crow-Armstrong"


This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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Crow-Armstrong, 24, is the latest example of the powerful combination of youth and experience. Jordan Walker, about six weeks younger than Crow-Armstrong, is another example from this year. We used to talk about the age-23 breakout, when a player who made the majors at 20 or 21 could leverage physical maturity with knowledge gained in MLB to make a big leap forward. It’s why merely getting to the majors at a very young age is, all by itself, a sign of potential greatness. PCA was 18 when he was drafted, lost time to injury, and still reached the majors at 21, was a very good regular at 22 and 23, and launched at 24. 

If Crow-Armstrong had started the 2026 season as this player, it would not be as interesting. He did not. He started this season, across the board, as the player he’d been over the final five months of ’25. Across ten days at the end of April, a switch flipped, and he morphed into the best player in baseball. 

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Monday, August 17, 2026

Newsletter Excerpt, August 17, 2026 -- "Statement"

 

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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If Will Venable does win AL Manager of the Year, his use of these two pitchers will be a big part of the story. For parts of the year these two have been his only reliable relievers. Rather than lock them into standard roles, he’s used them from one day to the next as best needed to get the Sox a win. He’s been adaptable as well; when Newcomb struggled working back-to-back days, Venable moved away from using him in those spots. Just two of Newcomb’s last 13 appearances have come on no rest, and one of those was after an outing of just eight pitches. It would have been easy to make Taylor a one-inning closer. Instead, in this month alone, Taylor has entered games from the sixth through the ninth, inheriting runners in some games, getting a clean ninth in others.

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Thursday, August 13, 2026

Newsletter Excerpt, August 13, 2026 -- "Fun (-ish) with Numbers: COR Concern"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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Oh, and into this perfect storm of pitching MLB may have inserted a dead ball.

What the Hell? (stats four weeks after the All-Star break, recent seasons)


        AVG   OBP   SLG   BABIP    HR/FB   wRC+
2026   .243  .316  .398    .289    11.4%    98
2025   .248  .317  .416    .291    12.4%   104
2024   .248  .316  .418    .294    12.7%   106 
2023   .248  .319  .423    .295    13.8%   102


The period between the All-Star break and Labor Day is generally the sweet spot for hitting and for hitting with power. Instead, this year, slugging, home runs, and overall offense have been shockingly low.

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