Newsletter Excerpt, February 5, 2026 -- "Brendan Donovan and the Mariners"

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Brendan Donovan is in Seattle. The Mariners roped in the Rays to build a three-way trade that cost them glove man Ben Williamson, two recent first-round picks in Jurrangelo Cjiinte and Tai Peete, and a Bud’s Bonus draft pick. The Mariners didn’t touch the core of their farm system to add an OBP-forward infielder on a low salary who could fill a number of roles for them depending on how other players progress. Per Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS system, Donovan is projected to lead the Mariners in OBP, which should let him fill a leadoff spot that was a big problem last year: 27th in OPS+, 25th in OBP.

The risk here is mostly in the adjustment to T-Mobile Park. In recent seasons, many hitters the Mariners have acquired have seen their production collapse in Seattle. Jesse Winker had a .288/.385/.504 career line before being dealt northwest in 2022. He hit .219/.344/.344 for the Mariners. Carlos Santana came over from the Royals that summer with his career .362 OBP and hit .192/.293/.400 in half a season. The next year, Teoscar Hernandez arrived in Seattle with a career 121 OPS+, hit for a 108 mark that year, then bounced back to 120 in two seasons with the Dodgers. That season, we also watched the careers of Kolten Wong and A.J. Pollock ended by the dead air at T-Mobile.

 

Newsletter Excerpt, February 4, 2026 -- "Turnover, and the Cardinals"

 

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Too many executives shy away from dealing all of the veterans while rebuilding, trying to hold on to fan favorites, to popular players in the clubhouse, or just to keep from blasting another hole in the roster. Bloom, by making this last move, completed a process the Cards needed to go through. There were six Cardinals 28 and older who batted for the team last year. Three of them have been traded, one left as a free agent, and one was waived in-season. Yohel Pozo, a rookie last year, returns. Run the same calculation on the pitching staff, and you find that of the 13 pitchers 28 and older who pitched for the ’25 Cardinals, just five remain, mostly low-service-time relief pitchers.

As I write this, the Cardinals have 39 players on their 40-man roster, and just three of them will play the 2026 season at a baseball age of 30 or older: Riley O’Brien, Ryne Stanek, and Nick Raquet, all relievers. There isn’t a single position player on this team older than 29. Bloom has cleared a roster logjam that interfered, at times, with the development of young players. Those players now take center stage.

 

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, February 2, 2026 -- "Challenging Decisions"

 

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So what does my decision matrix look like? It makes for a very complex table, I’m afraid, boiling down the game state, the batter, the pitcher, the platoon considerations within that matchup, and the count. I would start the process before the batter walks to the plate, perhaps with a red/green system the batter sees from the dugout, perhaps via the third-base coach. 

-- Only my best hitters can challenge the first two times through the order. Sorry, Kyle Isbel, but we need to save the challenges for Bobby Witt Jr.’s use.

-- No batter can challenge without at least one runner in scoring position.

-- No pitcher can ever challenge.

MLB reported the success rates on challenges last spring: catchers 56%, batters 50%, pitchers 41%. This makes sense, as catchers have a great angle, batters a lesser one, and pitchers are finishing up their motion as the pitch crosses the plate. I would have a blanket “pitchers can never challenge” policy and make rare situational or player-specific exceptions to that. 

The rules for catchers are the same -- reserve challenges for good hitters, for higher-leverage situations, for the critical counts. Let Ceddanne Rafaela take a Kyle Bradish slider to get to 1-1 in the bottom of the second even if you think the call was wrong. You’ll be fine. A red/green system signaled from the dugout can manage catchers’ use of challenges, too.

Newsletter Excerpt, January 31, 2026 -- "Josh Lowe and the Angels"

 

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Today we’ll pick off the last of the no-hopers. You can make playoff cases for as many as 27 teams, though the ones for the Marlins and White Sox are pretty pie-in-the-sky. The three teams I can’t see being relevant under any circumstances this year are the Nationals, Rockies, and today’s team, the Angels. The Angels have managed to squander Mike Trout’s career and six years of Shohei Ohtani’s without a playoff appearance since 2014 or a postseason win since 2009. The Angels haven’t finished above .500 since 2015, their streak of ten straight sub-.500 seasons the longest in the game. Over those ten years, they have the seventh-worst record in baseball despite sharing the game’s second-largest market.

Their player development has been a problem, even granting some front-line successes. The Angels have emphasized drafting players who can make a quick impact. Since 2021, they have pushed seven players to the majors in the season they were drafted or the one following it. That hasn’t produced wins at the MLB level, and despite some success by Zach Neto and Nolan Schnanuel, it hasn’t produced much of a major-league core. The farm system today is ranked 23rd by ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel, 29th by Keith Law of The Athletic.

 

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, January 29, 2026 -- "Edouard Julien and the Rockies"

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Rockies second basemen have posted a 64 wRC+ and -1.7 FanGraphs WAR the last two years. Last September, the team was playing Ryan Ritter (61/10 K/BB), Tyler Freeman (negative fielding value at every infield spot he’s played), and Orlando Arcia (literally Orlando Arcia) at second base. If Julien can find second base, he’s an upgrade. Don’t think he can do even that? Rockies first basemen had a 70 wRC+ and -4.8 fWAR the last two years. Last September, they were leaning on 28-year-old waiver bait Blaine Crim to play first. ZiPS has Julien as the team’s third-best hitter, Steamer pegs him fourth.

I don’t know if Julien can hit well enough to carry his glove, but he’s been sent to a place where he’ll have the best chance he’ll ever have to save his career. 

 

 

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, January 27, 2026 -- "Harrison Bader and the Giants"

 

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By going to the Giants, Bader lines up everyday playing time rather than platoon work, largely because of his defensive value. Heliot Ramos and Jung Hoo Lee were simply bad in the pasture as the team’s most-used outfielders in left and center. Luis Matos has been bad in all three of his MLB seasons. Late-season call-ups Drew Gilbert and Grant McCray provided younger legs and no bats. Bader joins the team as, by far, its best defensive outfielder, even if you bake in some age-related decline at 32. I’m more concerned about his bat: Bader posted sub-.300 OBPs from ’22 through ’24, and while a .372 BABIP against northpaws hid it last year, he’s long been more a platoon player, often dominated by right-handed pitching, than an everyday guy.

Signing Harrison Bader to be the fourth outfielder on a team with a lefty-heavy outfield and at least one spot occupied by a poor glove man, that’s sharp. Signing Harrison Bader to be your everyday center fielder because at 32 he’ll be the best center fielder on the team...that’s a very 81-81 move. The Giants have been within a couple games of .500 for four straight seasons, exactly .500 twice, and that’s likely their ceiling again.