Newsletter Excerpt, October 12, 2026 -- "Postseason 2026: ALCS Preview"

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When projecting a playoff series, I try to think of paths. What ways could each team beat the other, and how realistic are they? It’s hard to identify the Guardians’ paths through the Rays. They are off-rotation, with a heavily worked pitching staff, and they have the second-best everything. The Rays’ weak spot is one of the worst infield defenses in baseball by Outs Above Average. The Guardians, though, have a bottom-ten groundball rate (higher, though, since the trade deadline). The Guardians manage the strike zone well, with the best offensive K/BB in the AL. Rays pitchers had the fifth-lowest walk rate of any team this decade. If we take strikeouts and walks off the table and evaluate a team’s offense based on how it did when the bat hit the ball, the Guardians were second-to-last in the majors, just ahead of the Blue Jays. No team barreled fewer baseballs. 

I don’t see how the Guardians are going to score, and I don’t think the current version of this pitching staff can hang enough zeroes to win a bunch of low-scoring games. Everything, save perhaps seven innings of Gavin Williams, points to the Rays. We’ll call it a gentleman’s sweep, Rays in five.

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Newsletter Excerpt, October 12, 2026 -- "Postseason 2026: NLCS Game One"

 

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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The Brewers faded a so-so start by The Miz and got to the sixth with a lead. Then the bullpen took over. DL Hall, Abner Uribe, Aaron Ashby, and Trevor Megill threw 4 2/3 shutout innings, Murphy alternating lefties and righties over the final five frames. Ashby was leaking oil at the end of his 26-pitch outing, and Trevor Megill did not have his command at all, but the Dodgers were unable to take advantage, going hitless over the final three innings, scoreless over the final seven, winless over the last nine.

The margins are incredibly fine at this level, two great teams, two great pitchers. Misiorowski was a little off and couldn’t get out of the fifth. Skubal made a couple of mistakes and both led to runs. The Dodgers had 11 hard-hit balls, but none of them longer than 385 feet in the air. (I joked about the league finding a pallet of Happy Fun Balls from 2019 for this round; they were definitely not in play last night.) 

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Newsletter Excerpt, October 11, 2026 -- "Postseason 2026: NLCS Preview"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card. (Zelle users, please email me for details.)

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These are mostly the same teams they were a year ago. The differences, though, favor the Brewers. They have an ace in Misiorowski who they didn’t have last year. They have an upgraded defense. The Dodgers’ age has begun to chip away at their offense and defense, and injuries have them playing a diminished Ohtani.

I’m not going to pretend either of these teams is a big favorite, or that this pick is certain. I’m sticking with my initial call, though, Brewers in seven. 

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Newsletter Excerpt, October 11, 2026 -- "Put It In Bronze"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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Jose Ramirez had the worst season of his career.

Jose Ramirez had the best moment of his career.

When they build the statue, I think it will be based on the swing he put on a Sean Burke curve in the fourth inning last night. Ramirez hit a ball that should not have been hittable. Let’s not lose sight of that; Burke made an excellent pitch. This is just what Hall of Famers do, take out a pitching wedge and lob your perfect pitch 116 yards into the right-field stands for the only two runs of the biggest game of the year. Ramirez’s follow-through, bat held high in his right hand, fully extended, is going to look good in bronze.

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Newsletter Excerpt, October 9, 2026 -- "Postseason 2026: Overmanaging"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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Stephen Vogt has won the last two AL Manager of the Year awards, and Will Venable is going to win this year’s. This week, though, both have overmanaged, making this series the least watchable of any so far. I can appreciate tactical intrigue, but we’ve seen 49 pitching appearances in four games. That’s not intriguing, it’s exasperating. 

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Newsletter Excerpt, October 8, 2026 -- "Postseason 2026: Balls to the Wall"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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He thought it was gone, walking backwards across home plate, watching, bathing in the crowd’s cheers.

I thought it was gone, and even as the ball flew towards deep center, I was mentally rewriting my lede and wondering who would pitch the ninth for the Brewers.

The crowd...the crowd knew it was gone. Look at their faces as the ball descends. It’s their time. No roof here. 

Garrett Mitchell knew it wasn’t gone. Already playing deep, he worked back towards the wall, feeling the grass give way to the track, clocking the ball’s flight. If you take the context out, the game, the series, the crowd, the wall, it’s a pretty routine fly ball. He makes a short leap to catch the ball, fighting the hands of Padres fans reaching for team history.

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