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Pittsburgh Pirates
I’ve written about “The Demon” for more than a decade now. It’s pretty much an inviolable rule that if you’re one of the hardest-throwing starters in baseball, you’re going to blow out your elbow. Gerrit Cole has been shockingly durable, Zack Wheeler has stayed on the mound for a while after having Tommy John surgery early in his career, but they’re the exceptions.
So when you see Paul Skenes drafted, and a year later he’s the hardest-throwing starter in baseball, it’s just impossible to not hear the clock ticking. It’s awful to think this way, but you have to. Skenes’s teammate, rookie Jared Jones, was the fourth-hardest throwing starter in baseball, at least until the end of the year, when he came back from a lat injury with much less velo. Maybe in 1964 or 1984 or even 2004 you could see a team call up two young hurlers like this and dream on the next six years. In 2024, you dream on the next six starts.
The Pirates’ moment is now. Their two best players are max-velo starting pitchers, a category of player that will get hurt and miss a season to two seasons. They’re healthy now, though, so the Pirates have to put a team around them that can win now. There’s no building long-term around pitchers like this. Ask the Braves about Spencer Strider. Ask the Marlins about Sandy Alcantara. Ask the Angels about Shohei Ohtani; in fact, ask them twice.
To put a 70-win team around Skenes and Jones next year, while asking them to make 55 starts at the minimum salary, is criminal. The Pirates project to have one of the worst offenses in baseball and one of the lowest payrolls in baseball, and the two go hand in hand. They’ve been bad at developing hitters, even while investing a ton of draft capital in them. They go into next year with Skenes, Jones, Luis Ortiz, Oneil Cruz, and Bryan Reynolds for a combined $16 million or so. Their total tax payroll is under $100 million. I doubt they can get Juan Soto to go to Pittsburgh for any amount of money, but they can get ten wins better over the third-worst offense in baseball last year just by writing checks.
Here is the shopping list for the 2025 Pirates. Yes, they’re overpaying for these players.
-- Alex Bregman, four years, $90 million. Bregman in his decline phase will be a three-win player for a few years, helped by an excellent contact rate and good defense. He’s a three-win upgrade on Jared Triolo.
-- Tyler O’Neill, two years, $50 million. This is a too-high AAV in an effort to convince O’Neill to come to Pittsburgh. There’s injury risk, to be sure, but I’d rather pay O’Neill at 30 and 31 than Teoscar Hernandez at 32 and 33. O’Neill is a better outfielder, too. By Baseball Reference calculations, the Pirates had the worst right fielders in baseball last year. TON is worth at least three wins to them even if he plays just 110 games.
-- Carlos Santana, one year, $15 million, plus vesting option. These two know each other, as Santana signed with the Pirates in 2023 before being traded at the deadline. The salary is more than what Santana has made on his last two deals, but he’s coming off a fantastic defensive season and is still above average at the plate. He’s worth two wins over Rowdy Tellez and Co.
Those three players make the 2025 Pirates eight to ten wins better while adding about $60 million cash to the payroll -- still well below average. They put an improved defense on the field behind Skenes, Jones, and Ortiz, and make for a huge improvement at the plate. After doing this, the Pirates can scour leftovers for upgrades at DH and the middle infield, maybe see if Joc Pederson or Gleyber Torres slips through the cracks until February.
If you can’t believe I’m recommending this plan, well, neither can I. The equation is just different for a team built about Paul Skenes and Jared Jones. You have to act as if there is no tomorrow, because everything we know about players like them tells us there is no tomorrow.
