Newsletter Excerpt, July 3, 2024 -- "AL West Notes"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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Seattle Mariners

There has been a lot of consternation in Seattle over the Mariners’ strikeout rate, which is the highest in MLB at 27.9%, nearly two points higher than the A’s in second place, and a full two points higher than last year’s mark, which was second in MLB.

The problem, though, isn’t the strikeouts, it’s everything else. Last year’s Mariners struck out 25.9% of the time, but  they still posted a 107 wRC+ -- a top-ten mark in MLB, and tied for sixth in the AL. This year’s team, striking out just a bit more, has a bottom-ten offense, a 93 wRC+, with a sub-.300 OBP. 

Strikeouts are an effect, not a cause. Batters that strike out are doing so because they’re seeing more pitches, which will often lead to walks. Batters that strike out are doing so because when they swing, they’re trying to do damage by hitting the ball hard and far. Strikeouts are positively correlated with good outcomes like walks and power, and you only have to go back to those 2023 Mariners to see that. That team was 13th in walk rate, 11th in homers, tenth in isolated power. This one is walking about as often, seventh in MLB and a bit up from last year, but is 18th in isolated power.

It’s The Contact, Stupid (on-contact stats, 2023-24 Mariners)

        AVG    SLG   wOBA    Brl%  

2024   .318   .531   .361    9.0%  

2023   .345   .587   .390    9.9%

The 2% rise in strikeout rate pales in comparison to losing 27 points of BA and 56 points of slugging on batted balls. Last year, when the Mariners hit the ball, they were ninth in MLB in weighted on-base average with a .390 mark -- good results. This year, they’re 17th, at .361. 

The Mariners’ strikeout rate is a problem, it’s just not the problem. The problem is that they’re not getting the kind of production on contact that usually comes with swinging and missing that much. Jorge Polanco has a 32% strikeout rate and an .099 ISO. Mitch Haniger has a 28% strikeout rate and a .123 ISO. Julio Rodriguez has a 27% strikeout rate and an astonishing .079 ISO. 

Until the Mariners start hitting the ball well when they do hit it, their strikeout rate just isn’t going to matter.

 

Newsletter Excerpt, July 2, 2024 -- "AL Central Notes"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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Chicago White Sox

The alphabet is a bitch sometimes, isn’t it? No one wants to see the White Sox leading a column, and yet here we are. The Sox are 24-62, a recent three-game winning streak pushing them a bit better than a 120-loss pace. This won’t be a fun story, though it will be a story, especially if the roster gets worse at the trade deadline.

In the middle of this mess, though, the Sox have a 1-2 punch atop their rotation that’s the envy of every team in baseball. 

“It’s Not Your Fault” (best top two starters’ bWAR, 2024)

           bWAR

White Sox   7.7 (Crochet 4.0, Fedde 3.7)

Royals      6.8 (Lugo 4.2, Ragans 2.6)

Tigers      6.1 (Skubal 3.9, Flaherty 2.2)

Braves      5.5 (Lopez 3.0, Sale 2.5)

Reds        5.3 (Greene 2.8, Abbott 2.5)

This won’t last. Garrett Crochet has thrown 101 1/3 innings and it’s hard to see him finishing out the season in the rotation given a previous professional high of 54 1/3. Erick Fedde is an excellent candidate to be traded. Today, though, the White Sox have the best 1-2 punch on the worst team in baseball. How rare is that?

There are a few ways to get at this question, but what I did was look for teams that had two five-win starters and played sub-.400 baseball. Turns out there are just four AL/NL teams that meet the criteria, three of them from more than 100 years ago...and the 2013 White Sox. Those Hose went 63-99 even as Chris Sale and Jose Quintana posted five-win campaigns. 

These Sox could be a lot worse than that, maybe not even getting to 50 wins or a .300 winning percentage. If they do so, they’ll have the best 1-2 punch on a terrible team ever. There’s been just one team in baseball history that failed to play .300 baseball while having two four-win starting pitchers, and until today I had never heard of it: the 1886 Kansas City Cowboys of the National League. It was the franchise’s only season in a major league, and they went 30-91 and allowed nearly seven runs a game. Two of their three starters, Jim Whitney and George Weidman, pitched so much -- 393 and 427 innings, respectively -- that they racked up 4.6 bWAR apiece.

There’s pretty much never been a team like these White Sox, heading for one of the worst seasons ever despite having two aces atop its starting rotation.