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The 123/0 performance the last two seasons represents a massive drop-off from the period just before. BABIP is down 80 points with the bases loaded and nobody out over two seasons, with a truly bizarre dip in power with the bases loaded and nobody out last year. That 2024 BABIP is the lowest since 1987 and the sixth-lowest on record. Run expectancy in bases-loaded, no-out situations is 2.34 runs. Last year’s mark, 2.26 runs, was fifth-lowest since 1998. (Big thanks to Robert Au at Baseball Prospectus for that info.) Some combination of pitching and defense is just wrecking hitters in these spots.
Batted-ball data shows that hitters are hitting the ball less hard in these spots, and while not shown in the chart, the average launch angle has dipped two degrees in four years. Hard-hit rate is down from 39.2% the first two years to 36.3% the last two.
