Wednesday, July 31, 2024

Newsletter Excerpt, July 31, 2024 -- "Incoherence"

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A trade deadline like the one we just watched upsets us because it’s incoherent. The deals, individually, can be analyzed and explained and even justified. Looked at as a market, though, they don’t make sense. Bill C. wants to understand why his team’s GM didn’t do better than the Blue Jays’ GM did given he had better pitcher on offer with more team control. He reads Miguel Vargas and two A-ball infielders as less valuable than Joey Loperfido, Jake Bloss, and Will Wagner. So why didn’t Getz just trade Fedde to the Astros? We want an explanation.

There’s not going to be a satisfying one. As a practical matter, trades aren’t made as in a fantasy league, with someone posting that they have a starting pitcher on offer and they’re looking for draft picks. Some front offices do work better with others, whether it’s because they value players similarly or they have established personal connections. That’s been true for decades. The deadline is dynamic, as every single trade changes the mix of players on offer and the talent teams are looking to add. Each front office is under a different set of pressures from ownership, from fans, from the local media, from its players. Many of them simply aren’t working by the same rules everyone else is, as evidenced by the players in the Rockies/Angels game last night.