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Tigers 3, Mariners 2 (10 inn.)
AB R H BI
Robles CF 5 1 0 0
The Victor Robles story is fascinating. He’s a former top prospect who, at 22, was the starting center fielder and four-win player for a championship team, then lost his way in 2020 and never really made it back. Robles, now 27, was released last month by the Nationals, no longer even a post-hype sleeper. The Mariners, desperate for outfield help, signed Robles and watched him play great ball for a month: .355/.444/.581 in 38 PA with good defense and four stolen bases.
I’d argue that Robles, who certainly isn’t a true-talent .355 hitter, had actually changed his game a year ago. In 2023, Robles opened the year as the Nationals’ starting center fielder. He started 30 of the team’s first 31 games, hitting .292/.388/.360 with the best strikeout rate (13%) and K/BB (14/10) of his career. On May 6, Robles injured his back stealing second, and lost six weeks to the injury. He lasted five games -- with a hit in every one -- and then went back on the IL for good. Robles broke out last year, but the back injury ended his season before anyone noticed.
In Robles’s absence, Jacob Young made a strong impression, setting up a job battle that was eventually won by...Eddie Rosario? Robles would strain his hamstring in both March and April. When he returned in May, he hit just .130 (.188 BABIP) in ten games and was released. I don’t think the 2024 performance with the Nationals, which amounted to ten starts in almost two months, had any signal at all. As bad as it was, Robles still carried the good K/BB forward, 9/5 in 33 PA.
The Mariners did a great job ignoring the 2024 line and focusing on the skills change. Robles played so well that the Mariners signed him to a two-year contract extension at a very low price -- less than $10 million. If Robles is just an extra outfielder for them, and he has all the skills for that job, it’s a good deal.
It hasn’t been all sunshine and lollipops, though. Robles’s 0-for-5 yesterday, from the leadoff spot, puts him at 6-for-43 in August, with a 445 OPS. The strike zone has been getting away from him again, as his K/BB has slipped to 13/2, and is 20/5 since the All-Star break. I’m a believer in the changes he’s made, and I think he’ll help the Mariners, but we can safely reset expectations that he will be a key offensive player.
AB R H BI
Robles CF 5 1 0 0
The Victor Robles story is fascinating. He’s a former top prospect who, at 22, was the starting center fielder and four-win player for a championship team, then lost his way in 2020 and never really made it back. Robles, now 27, was released last month by the Nationals, no longer even a post-hype sleeper. The Mariners, desperate for outfield help, signed Robles and watched him play great ball for a month: .355/.444/.581 in 38 PA with good defense and four stolen bases.
I’d argue that Robles, who certainly isn’t a true-talent .355 hitter, had actually changed his game a year ago. In 2023, Robles opened the year as the Nationals’ starting center fielder. He started 30 of the team’s first 31 games, hitting .292/.388/.360 with the best strikeout rate (13%) and K/BB (14/10) of his career. On May 6, Robles injured his back stealing second, and lost six weeks to the injury. He lasted five games -- with a hit in every one -- and then went back on the IL for good. Robles broke out last year, but the back injury ended his season before anyone noticed.
In Robles’s absence, Jacob Young made a strong impression, setting up a job battle that was eventually won by...Eddie Rosario? Robles would strain his hamstring in both March and April. When he returned in May, he hit just .130 (.188 BABIP) in ten games and was released. I don’t think the 2024 performance with the Nationals, which amounted to ten starts in almost two months, had any signal at all. As bad as it was, Robles still carried the good K/BB forward, 9/5 in 33 PA.
The Mariners did a great job ignoring the 2024 line and focusing on the skills change. Robles played so well that the Mariners signed him to a two-year contract extension at a very low price -- less than $10 million. If Robles is just an extra outfielder for them, and he has all the skills for that job, it’s a good deal.
It hasn’t been all sunshine and lollipops, though. Robles’s 0-for-5 yesterday, from the leadoff spot, puts him at 6-for-43 in August, with a 445 OPS. The strike zone has been getting away from him again, as his K/BB has slipped to 13/2, and is 20/5 since the All-Star break. I’m a believer in the changes he’s made, and I think he’ll help the Mariners, but we can safely reset expectations that he will be a key offensive player.
