Friday, August 2, 2024

Newsletter Excerpt, August 2, 2024 -- "Third Third Previews, Pt. 1"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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26. Los Angeles Angels (47-62, .431, 26th in MLB)

There are some similarities between the Angels and Rockies, with the teams having a similar crop of low-ceiling young players, mediocre pitching, and a terrible free-agent contract for a veteran third baseman on the books. They also share oddly resilient attendance figures in the face of extended poor play. Shohei Ohtani propped up recent Angels crowds, but even without him, and without much else to watch, the Angels are averaging 30,000 tickets sold a game. 

Perry Minasian made one of the stronger deadline trades, flipping 25 innings of Carlos Estevez to the Phillies for one of the best prospects dealt last week, righty George Klassen, and a second pitching prospect in Italian lefty Samuel Aldegheri. Klassen is the kind of power arm the Angels have not been able to develop well. The 2023 draftee had a ton of helium this summer, though in fairness, he was a college pitcher dropped into A ball who put up great numbers against younger competition. Minasian also sent Luis Garcia to the Red Sox for four prospects, none of whom have a high profile. It’s important to consider the “something for nothing” factor; the innings Estevez and Garcia would have thrown for the Angels had no value to them, so trading them for even a collection of lottery tickets -- and Estevez returned more than that -- makes sense.

The big Angels story, though, wasn’t the deadline deals. Mike Trout announced yesterday that he would miss the remainder of the season with a second torn meniscus in his right knee. Trout wasn’t going to lead the Angels back to the playoffs, but he’d have made them both better and more watchable. This will be the third time in four years that Trout doesn’t play in even 100 games (fourth in five counting 2020), and the ninth in a row that he doesn’t play in 150.

Trout, who missed a total of 16 games from 2013 through 2016, missed nearly 500 games over the next eight seasons and played in just 59% of the Angels’ games from 2017 through 2024. His chances to reach major milestones like records for runs or WAR are all gone, and he may be hard-pressed to collect 2500 hits or 500 home runs. His place in baseball history is secure as one of the best ever, but the shape of his career is now warped, fractured. It’s arguable whether he’s even the best player of his era, given the accomplishments of Shohei Ohtani and the ongoing excellence of Mookie Betts.

Trout will return next year at 33, and if the Angels are going to get what they need from him, they have to make the long overdue decision to get him not just out of center field, but off the field entirely. This is the shift Ken Griffey Jr. never accepted, and continuing to play center cost him time and value. Trout, who has resisted a move to left field in the past, has to have the decision taken out of his hands now. His bat is too important to the Angels, even in light decline. 

Mildly Interesting Statistical NuggetAnthony Rendon is back on the IL with, I don’t know, bad dreams or something. He cannot play in 100 games this year, which will make five straight seasons with the Angels in which he didn’t reach that threshold. If he doesn’t play in 27 more games, it will be the fifth straight season in which he doesn’t even reach 60 games played. (Yes, I’m cheating and including 2020.) For a franchise with an absolutely epic track record of disastrous free-agent signings, Rendon may end up the worst one of all.

Who Plays Where Now? Boy, there sure are a lot of bad teams that kept their best players. The Angels opened the closer role by trading Estevez, which seemed like it created a path for rookie Ben Joyce. Not so fast. The first opportunity went to Garcia, and the next two to Hunter Strickland. I think Don Aase is next up.