Saturday, August 3, 2024

Newsletter Excerpt, August 3, 2024 -- "Third Third Previews, Pt. 2"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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The number in front of every team’s name is their preseason ranking in this space, which is also the order in which the Third Third capsules run.

Record and rank are through Friday, August 2. 

 
15. Boston Red Sox (58-50, .537, tenth in MLB)

The Red Sox added Danny Jansen, who turned out to be one of the best position players to switch teams at the deadline. Jansen bumped Reese McGuire off the roster to give the Sox one of the best catching situations, with Connor Wong, in the majors. 

Avi P. checks in...

One more comment on the Danny Jansen trade. Connor Wong can play second base, which has been a real problem area for the Red Sox.

He can, in the sense that he has, but he’s played 20 innings there in four years, plus a couple of games at Worcester. I don’t think he's an option outside of some weird intra-game maneuvering, which is how he’s gotten all his run there. I don’t think I’d ever start him there over David Hamilton or Romy Gonzalez. Jamie Westbrook has ejected himself from the conversation, as expected, and I know nothing about Nick Sogard. 

The Sox also added two relievers in Luis Garcia and Lucas Sims, and starter James Paxton, all for prospects that Baseball America had outside the game’s top 500 and outside the top 30 dealt at the deadline. With their starting rotation deteriorating, Alex Cora leaned on his pen, which collapsed to a 4.85 ERA and 4.40 FIP in June and July. The reinforcements aren’t great, but they will help, and Paxton is intriguing in a relief role.

The Sox, of course, were on the other side of that prospect challenge trade with the Pirates. Their infield, 2024 second-base situation aside, is beginning to get crowded. Ceddanne Rafaela and David Hamilton will soon be joined by Marcelo Mayer, so Nick Yorke was already being moved around the diamond a bit. Priester had failed to launch for the Pirates, with a 6.46 ERA in 94 2/3 innings, including 14 starts. Without much of a two-seam fastball, but a curve that misses bats and a changeup that has performed well in limited use, Priester is a candidate for the Red Sox “just throw your best pitches” makeover. He could be the next Nick Pivetta, a deadline pickup who ends up throwing 500 average innings for no money.

Mildly Interesting Statistical Nugget: The Red Sox are 26th in Statcast’s defensive measurement, Outs Above Average, the lowest of any team that can be considered a contender. It’s the infield -- they’re last in runs prevented (-20) and Outs Above Average (-26). RafaelaRafael DeversEnmanuel Valdez, and Pablo Reyes are all among the 40 worst infielders in baseball by OAA.

Who Plays Where Now? Jansen pushed McGuire out to the parking lot. The bigger surprise was Greg Weissert losing his roster spot to all the imported relievers after becoming a high-leverage guy for much of the summer. Weissert, though, had a 5.96 ERA since the start of June. I expect him to be back in September, maybe sooner.