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The
number in front of every team’s name is their preseason ranking in this
space, which is also the order in which the Third Third capsules run.
Record and rank are through Sunday, August 4.
Record and rank are through Sunday, August 4.
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18. Cleveland Guardians (67-44, .604, first in MLB)
[record scratch]
Yeah, I know. The team with the best record in baseball on August 4 missing the playoffs? The Guardians are 4 1/2 games up on the Twins in the Central, 7 1/2 up on the Red Sox for any playoff spot, ten up on the Rays, a team I effectively have beating them out.
I’ve been on this corner for a while, going on VSIN in July and even then -- when the Guardians had just edged into that “best record in baseball” status -- offering them up as the division leader most likely to miss the tournament.
There are a few things happening here. One, “best record in baseball” doesn’t mean what it usually does. The top tier of MLB teams is far weaker than it’s been since the mid-2010s, with no team on pace to win 100 games after at least three teams reached that mark in every full season since 2017. Second, the Guardians are no more a .600 team than I’m a linebacker. Per Clay Davenport’s third-order record, which looks at underlying performance and strength of schedule, the Guardians are the most overachieving team in the game, closer to a .500 team (56-55) than a .600 one.
The Guardians didn’t do much at the trade deadline. Lane Thomas is a good player best used in a fourth outfielder/platoon role, definitely stretched in center field. Batting him second everyday is a mistake, as even in his last few breakout seasons he’s had a sub-.300 OBP against right-handed pitchers. Thomas is a better player than Will Brennan, I’m just not sure that how he’s going to be used helps the Guardians much.
The Guardians didn’t add quality or bulk to their starting rotation, leaving them with a two-man rotation of Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams. After that, Ben Lively, Carlos Carrasco, and current wheel spin Joey Cantillo are filler, looking to the offense to save them. Triston McKenzie has a 5.09 ERA and an 18% walk rate in five Triple-A starts. Logan Allen comes back tonight; he had a 5.67 ERA and a 5.45 FIP in 18 starts. There are just going to be a lot of nights when the Guardians’ starter puts a game out of reach, effectively neutering the team’s terrific bullpen.
That’s the obvious stuff. The less obvious problem is that an offense we spent three months praising has gone back to being the Cleveland Guardians. The team is 13th in wRC+ for the season at 102, but the wheels are coming off; just three teams have hit worse since the start of July. Mind you, the team’s numbers to date have been compiled against the second-worst schedule in baseball, one that gets rougher starting now. The Guardians, who split with the Orioles over the weekend, don’t see another team that’s out of contention until September 9, and they play 26 of their next 32 games against teams above .500.
This is, admittedly, a flag plant, but it’s one in which I believe. It is possible that the offense and starting pitchers turn over just enough leads to the bullpen -- the best in the game -- for the Guardians to avoid a collapse. They need maybe 22 wins to lock up a playoff berth, so even .400 ball from here on in would get them across the line. I just see so much collapse risk here that I’m comfortable saying they won’t get there.
(Let me stick this in here to hopefully stave off some angry emails. If anything, I am biased towards the Guardians. Keith Woolner, with whom I worked at BP when we were building it, has been an executive with the Guardians for 20 years. There aren’t a dozen people on the planet I respect more, and Woolner becoming the latest Prospectus alum to get an inappropriately large ring would make me very happy.)
Mildly Interesting Statistical Nugget: Guardians relievers have allowed a .199 batting average, giving them a chance to be just the fifth team to give up a sub-.200 average out of the pen, and the first since the 1989 A’s.
Who Plays Where Now? Lane Thomas has started three games in right field, two in center, with Jhonkensy Noel and Tyler Freeman looking like the odd men out so far, and Angel Martinez keeping most of his playing time.
