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8. Baltimore Orioles (67-47, .588, fourth in MLB)
It was a disappointing trade deadline for the Orioles. They had the young talent to go out and add to their starting rotation, but instead added bulk. In overpaying for a #5 starter in Trevor Rogers, they made one of the worst decisions at the deadline. Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby may have had no path to playing time in Baltimore, fine. It’s just hard to believe that package wouldn’t have returned more value. Were the Tigers’ return for Jack Flaherty or the White Sox’s return for Erick Fedde that much better?
The failure to meaningfully add to the rotation looms larger a week later, after Grayson Rodriguez was unable to make his Tuesday start after experiencing pain in his shoulder. We’re still waiting on the results of imaging, but stealing from Will Carroll’s excellent Under the Knife newsletter...
If it’s the upper lat as indicated, this would be like a 2022 injury that Rodriguez had. He also missed time this year with a minor shoulder inflammation that resolved well, but could be related.
That was a Grade II lat strain and he missed three months, though Rodriguez was a hot prospect at the time and was handled very conservatively. If this is a lesser grade strain combined with a more aggressive rehab, Rodriguez could be back in a matter of weeks, giving him plenty of time to be “normal”. It could even end up like his last IL stint, which was just over the minimum. The key here is the grading and exactly where in the muscle (and which muscle - there is some question on that.)
The Orioles are unlikely to fall out of a playoff berth even if Rodriguez misses a month. Albert Suarez stepped in strongly last night and remains a solid #6/swingman. The bigger issue would be if Rodriguez didn’t make it back for the playoffs, especially if the O’s have to play the extra playoff series. Burnes/Rodriguez/Eflin/Suarez and Burnes/Eflin/Suarez/Kremer are two very different playoff rotations, especially since Corbin Burnes is unlikely to be used on three days’ rest.
The team’s trade for Eloy Jimenez didn’t make much sense, either, especially given it cost Heston Kjerstad his roster spot. The Orioles, who added Austin Slater as well, seem determined to keep Kjerstad, Colton Cowser, and even Jackson Holliday from seeing left-handed pitching. I’m not sure that’s the best baseball decision, as none have huge platoon splits. I am certain it’s a terrible developmental decision. Kjerstad was second on the Orioles in OBP; it’s hard to justify cutting that kind of player.
This is a front office I think highly of, but it has made some very curious choices over the last few weeks, parallel to the Yankees getting better.
Mildly Interesting Statistical Nugget: Jackson Holliday started his MLB career 2-for-34. Since being recalled on July 31, he’s hitting .400/.478/.900. Only Brandon Hyde can shut him down.
Who Plays Where Now? Craig Kimbrel’s last four appearances have all had a Leverage Index of less than .20, which is more or less how you’d use me if I wandered into your bullpen. The Orioles become the fifth straight team to acquire Kimbrel as a closer and move him to low-leverage relief in less than a year.
