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2. Chicago Cubs (57-60, .487, 20th in MLB)
This is the flip side of my Guardians pick, allowing my preseason call to drive the decision to keep the Cubs in playoff position. This one is easier to defend; the Cubs are closer to a playoff spot than the Guardians are to falling out of one.
Jed Hoyer tried to have it both ways at the deadline, adding Isaac Paredes to upgrade third base while shuffling the bullpen -- Mark Leiter Jr. out, Nate Pearson in. The Cubs are a bit better for the moves, if nothing else because of the defensive upgrade at the hot corner. It’s a bit disappointing that they didn’t do more given the holes in their lineup and the general weakness of the teams chasing playoff berths in the NL.
Pretty much everything I wrote about the Cubs in a long piece in June holds. The starting pitching has held up as everything else has collapsed. The bullpen, actually, has been much better than it was those first two months, and as more Cubs pitchers get healthy, projects as a top-ten pen the rest of the way. Since July 1, Cubs relievers have the lowest ERA (1.77) and FIP (2.77) in baseball. With the upgraded defense, I have the Cubs as one of the strongest run-prevention teams in baseball over the last 50 games, and that’s the case for them making the playoffs.
Will they score enough? Man, I don’t know any more. They have three lineup holes no matter who plays, and though they’ve been better in high-leverage spots -- .255/.338/.422, a 111 OPS+ -- they’re just 16-23 in one-run games. Again, this is something that should correct a bit, but is hardly guaranteed to do so. The Cubs have a soft August slate -- right now, they play one team above .500 the rest of the month -- that provides a launching pad. If they’re not in playoff position on Labor Day, it will be a wasted opportunity.
Mildly Interesting Statistical Nugget: The Cubs are slugging .382. Just once since offensive levels jumped in 1993 have they had a lower slugging percentage, .378 in 2012.
Who Plays Where Now? Paredes has been the everyday third baseman and Cody Bellinger the everyday DH over the last week. The Cubs have one of the most stable lineups in baseball now, with Pete Crow-Armstrong seemingly locked in center field. Bellinger still can’t throw; when his broken finger heals well enough, he could move out to center with Mike Tauchman getting some additional playing time.
