Saturday, September 14, 2024

Newsletter Excerpt, September 14, 2024 -- "Thinking Inside the Box"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 
Rockies 9, Cubs 5

                  AB  R  H  BI
Goodman C          4  2  3   7 2HR


Alvarez homered on 0-1, Judge on 2-0, De La Cruz on the first pitch. These things happen.

The Cubs’ season may have ended on an 0-2 slider, and you just can’t do that.

With the game tied at five, Craig Counsell called on Drew Smyly to start the eighth in Denver, and continuing a theme, Smyly made things worse by allowing two singles and a walk to the first three hitters he faced. After Smyly struck out Nolan Jones, Counsell lifted him to get the right/right matchup with Nate Pearson against Hunter Goodman. Goodman had homered off Javier Assad earlier in the game, but for the most part he’s been gettable for right-handed pitchers: coming into the game, he had 30 strikeouts and just 17 hits against righties this year That’s consistent with his minor-league work as a low-OBP slugger.

Pearson got ahead of Goodman with two sliders, to no surprise. Goodman had been worked by sliders from righties in his MLB career, batting under .121 with a .151 SLG and a 41% whiff rate. All Pearson had to do was finish the job; after falling down 0-2 in the majors, Goodman had a .136 AVG, with nine hits against 39 strikeouts.

Pearson didn’t finish the job. He left a cement-mixer of a slider up and over the plate, and Goodman crushed it. The chance that Goodman would do anything but strike out, given the count, Pearson’s handedness, and his repertoire, were tiny. That’s how bad the slider was.

There are any number of reasons why the Cubs will fall short of my outsized expectations for them this year. One will be the bullpen, and perhaps more specifically, why a tied game in the eighth inning of a September must-win...they’re all must-win now...game was handed over to Drew Smyly and Nate Pearson. I don’t think Craig Counsell has had his best year, but it’s not like he’s been working with Josh Hader and Devin Williams, either.

Two brutal losses in a row, coupled with a pair of Mets wins, probably bury the Cubs. They’re now 75-72, and with the top teams in the NL wild-card race setting a higher bar this year, they likely need to close 12-3, get to 87 wins, to have any chance. Even that might not be enough with their bad tiebreaker situation. They’re likely to finish one superstar season out of the playoff mix.
 

Friday, September 13, 2024

Newsletter Excerpt, September 13, 2024 -- "Jacob deGrom"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 
deGrom certainly looked healthy in his minor-league rehab stints, striking out 15 of the 36 batters he faced while allowing two doubles and two singles. In the two starts for which we have Statcast data, deGrom averaged 98.2 mph with his fastball, 90 mph with his slider. He’s 15 months removed from his second Tommy John surgery, his first as a pro, so the Rangers have taken their time with him. I’d expect him to pitch well tonight and in his next few starts, if only because it’s been quite a long time since he’s done anything else.
 
 

Thursday, September 12, 2024

Newsletter Excerpt, September 12, 2024 -- "The Padres Are So Extra"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 
Credit A.J. Preller for everything he did right this year -- stuff I agreed with, stuff I didn’t agree with, stuff I think he got lucky on. If you want, credit Mike Shildt, who was deeply unimpressive in St. Louis, with doing a better job than he did with those Cardinals just by avoiding the big mistakes. Acknowledge that this team shaved 4% off its strikeout rate, changing the shape of its offensive output -- more singles, fewer walks, less power -- and improving it a bit relative to the league.

All of that narrative -- much of it fact-based! -- eventually runs into this:

2023 Padres through nine innings: 80-68-14 (.537 WPct.), +120 run differential
2024 Padres through nine innings: 74-64-9 (.534 WPct.), +61 run differential

2023 Padres in extra innings: 2-12, -15 run differential
2024 Padres in extra innings: 8-1, +10 run differential
 
 

Tuesday, September 10, 2024

Newsletter Excerpt, September 10, 2024 -- "Bad Schedule"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 
As I wrote last week, the league can only do so much to create meaningful baseball in September given its priorities. The win distribution will be what it will be, and some years it won’t map well to the playoff structure. The league can only do so much; plan out a lot of divisional matchups in September, and you may not get the ones you need for late-season drama.

The piece the league does control, though, is interleague. MLB made a big deal of its everybody-plays-everybody scheduling last year, and that has its fans. Building 46 interleague games into every schedule comes with a cost, and that cost is currently paid in September. The season’s final weekend probably will have more interleague series (three) than important head-to-head ones. The Royals play their last game against an AL team on September 18. The Yankees play 15 of their final 34 games against the NL, just seven against the AL East.

Monday, September 9, 2024

Newsletter Excerpt, September 9, 2024 -- "Thinking Inside the Box"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 
Cubs 2, Yankees 1

                  AB  R  H  BI
Verdugo LF         3  0  1   0


I may be the only person in a 25-mile radius not freaking out about this. For those of you too far away to hear the screaming...the Yankees didn’t call up Jasson Dominguez, their top prospect and MLB Pipeline’s #16 prospect, when rosters expanded on September 1. They’re sticking with Alex Verdugo, who has something like three hits and one walk since the middle of May. Verdugo’s good defense has made him worth about a win this year, but he’s the weak spot in a Yankee lineup with a lot of disappointing hitters, down to ninth in the batting order because there is no tenth.

Dominguez had 17 PA in the majors last year, hit four home runs, and became the darling of Yankee fans who had been hearing about him since the second Reagan administration. He then suffered a torn right UCL and underwent Tommy John surgery. Dominguez is 21 and has just 267 total plate appearances above Double-A. He’s been good at Triple-A this year in less than 200 PA, but hardly dominant: .309/.368/.480. His minor-league batted ball data isn’t terribly impressive — 7% barrel rate, .459 expected SLG, 88 mph EV. He’s a year removed from Tommy John surgery, which has diminished superstars for up to 18 months past the surgery date.

There’s been a lot of talk this year about how players coming up from the minors are struggling initially because of the wide gap in pitching quality that now exists between the minors and majors. We saw Jackson Holliday start 2-for-34 and Jackson Chourio take a couple of months to get going. Take a guy who is not dominating Triple-A and ask him to make that adjustment, and it’s hardly clear he’ll be better than the alternative, no matter how annoying the alternative here.

Throw it all together, and I see more risk in bringing up Dominguez than others do, with a real possibility that it’s a brutal experience that affects his development. I don’t love dropping him into a situation where fans are going to treat him like a savior when he’s a 21-year-old coming off major surgery with a half-season of playing time at the top two levels. I think the Yankees are making a coin flip short-term decision and the right medium-term one.
 
 

Thursday, September 5, 2024

Newsletter Excerpt, September 5, 2024 -- "No-Hitters Are Nice, But..."

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 
The situation the Cubs find themselves in, unlikely to make the playoffs despite their big free-agent signing working out, has been replicated all around baseball. The Cubs’ rivals, the Cardinals, signed Sonny Gray to a three-year deal and have gotten 26 starts of 3.84 ERA ball while never really contending in the NL. The Cardinals’ whole offseason approach, in fact, to sign veteran innings guys, has worked -- 75 starts and more than 400 innings of a 4.09 ERA from Gray, Kyle Gibson, and Lance Lynn