Saturday, September 14, 2024

Newsletter Excerpt, September 14, 2024 -- "Thinking Inside the Box"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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Rockies 9, Cubs 5

                  AB  R  H  BI
Goodman C          4  2  3   7 2HR


Alvarez homered on 0-1, Judge on 2-0, De La Cruz on the first pitch. These things happen.

The Cubs’ season may have ended on an 0-2 slider, and you just can’t do that.

With the game tied at five, Craig Counsell called on Drew Smyly to start the eighth in Denver, and continuing a theme, Smyly made things worse by allowing two singles and a walk to the first three hitters he faced. After Smyly struck out Nolan Jones, Counsell lifted him to get the right/right matchup with Nate Pearson against Hunter Goodman. Goodman had homered off Javier Assad earlier in the game, but for the most part he’s been gettable for right-handed pitchers: coming into the game, he had 30 strikeouts and just 17 hits against righties this year That’s consistent with his minor-league work as a low-OBP slugger.

Pearson got ahead of Goodman with two sliders, to no surprise. Goodman had been worked by sliders from righties in his MLB career, batting under .121 with a .151 SLG and a 41% whiff rate. All Pearson had to do was finish the job; after falling down 0-2 in the majors, Goodman had a .136 AVG, with nine hits against 39 strikeouts.

Pearson didn’t finish the job. He left a cement-mixer of a slider up and over the plate, and Goodman crushed it. The chance that Goodman would do anything but strike out, given the count, Pearson’s handedness, and his repertoire, were tiny. That’s how bad the slider was.

There are any number of reasons why the Cubs will fall short of my outsized expectations for them this year. One will be the bullpen, and perhaps more specifically, why a tied game in the eighth inning of a September must-win...they’re all must-win now...game was handed over to Drew Smyly and Nate Pearson. I don’t think Craig Counsell has had his best year, but it’s not like he’s been working with Josh Hader and Devin Williams, either.

Two brutal losses in a row, coupled with a pair of Mets wins, probably bury the Cubs. They’re now 75-72, and with the top teams in the NL wild-card race setting a higher bar this year, they likely need to close 12-3, get to 87 wins, to have any chance. Even that might not be enough with their bad tiebreaker situation. They’re likely to finish one superstar season out of the playoff mix.