This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.
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We’ve covered it here for years. When you walk the bases loaded you take away a pitcher’s options. Face a hitter with second and third and two outs, and you have eight balls to play with. Face the next hitter with the bases loaded and two outs, and you have four. Batters hit .225/.343/.375 in the first situation, .233/.311/.408 in the second. The difference between those two lines is entirely walk rate (at that, mostly intentional walk rate), because a walk with second and third and two outs is the least costly walk you can issue. Batters hit for a higher average and more power after you load the bases because they know the pitcher doesn’t want to walk in a run and has to come into the zone.
You knew, though, more than that. You knew that Mark Vientos is a bad man. He’s come up in this space over and over again this season, and well before that. I was advocating for his call-up in May of 2023, and comping him to Pete Alonso over the winter. His recall on May 15 -- and not any purple things -- was what triggered the Mets’ success. The Mets went 61-44 when Vientos started this year, 28-29 when he didn’t. Finally given a chance to play every day, Vientos hit .266/.322/.516 with 27 homers, good for a 133 OPS+, and he handled third base well enough to stay there. He absolutely wrecked the Phillies in the NLDS, going 9-for-16 with two homers, two doubles, and two walks.
