Wednesday, May 15, 2024

Newsletter Excerpt, May 15, 2024 -- "Thinking Inside the Box"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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There’s not much in Chourio’s profile to hang your hat on. His 38/8 K/BB is bad. He’s got a lot of swing-and-miss in his game right now. When he makes contact, not much is happening: His expected stats on batted balls are a match for his actual ones. He has a 50% groundball rate and doesn’t even have a sub-split, say mashing breaking stuff or something, you can point to as a good sign.

As we’ve seen with some other rookies, there comes a point when having them work things out in the majors is counterproductive. Complicating matters for the Brewers is their early success, which means they have to value performance over development. If Chourio isn’t going to play every day in Milwaukee, then he’s better off in Nashville.

Monday, May 13, 2024

Newsletter Excerpt, May 13, 2024 -- "Clipped Wings"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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The parallels between the two bird teams diverge on the mound. The Cardinals, thanks to a surprisingly effective bullpen, are 17th in MLB in FIP, while the Jays are 26th. The Cardinals emphasized missing bats in the bullpen and getting innings from the rotation this winter. Their starters are 13th in the league in innings pitched, while as expected, not being terribly effective: a 4.31 FIP that’s 23rd in the league. The Cardinals have been vulnerable to their opponents breaking games open in the middle innings, where they’ve allowed 89 runs, tied for the most in baseball. Their starters, the third time around, have allowed a .287/.358/.489 line, seventh-worst in baseball by OPS+. As ever, when you eat innings, you get the runs.

Friday, May 10, 2024

Newsletter Excerpt, May 10, 2024 -- "Field of Skenes"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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Across 24 hours these next two days, then, the Pirates will be putting their future on the field. Jones has been one of the breakout stars of the early season, with a 2.63 ERA and a ridiculous 52/5 K/BB in his first seven career starts. He goes tonight against the Cubs, then Skenes follows him. For at least the next two months or so, until the Pirates put the brakes on the two pitchers, the Pirates are going to do what very few teams do these days -- start ace-caliber pitchers in back-to-back games. Skenes and Jones could be the 1-2 punch every team desperately wants to develop.
 

Thursday, May 9, 2024

Newsletter Excerpt, May 9, 2024 -- "Notes"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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Remember, we no longer get pitchers’ duels, where the tension mounts as two hurlers quickly dispatch the opposition. Even good starters on good days rarely pitch the ninth, most don’t see the eighth, and often a pitcher is pulled having posted six shutout innings. There have been 59 starts already this season in which a pitcher went exactly six innings and allowed no runs. There were 141 of those, total, in the 1970s. Last year, there were 199 starts that fit the criteria. There were 255 during the entire 1980s.
 
 

Wednesday, May 8, 2024

Newsletter Excerpt, May 8, 2024 -- "The Shortstops"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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Let’s focus on the three incredible talents at the top of the game’s shortstop pool, the Jeter/Rodriguez/Garciaparra of their era: Gunnar Henderson, Elly De La Cruz, and Bobby Witt Jr. By bWAR, they’re three of the top 20 players in baseball so far this season, Henderson and Witt among the top six. They get to those lofty rankings in different ways, and of course, age has to be part of the equation if we’re answering the original question: Which of the three would go first if you were starting a team today?
 
 

Monday, May 6, 2024

Newsletter Excerpt, May 6, 2024 -- "Twins, Past and Present"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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All this is to say that Bendix is right on the merits. He has to start over if he’s going to do what he was hired to do, build Rays South. Trading Arraez now, when the second baseman has two seasons to free agency, is the first step on that path. The Marlins, owing to all those pitching injuries, don’t have much to deal. There are no good hitters on this team. There are few healthy pitchers, fewer still effective ones. Arraez is the best hitter for average in baseball, but that’s the extent of his skill set, and it’s fair to wonder whether he has peaked.